Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play-0.027
- 48.0%Success rate40.7%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.124
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- +6.81CPOE+3.65
- 47.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.50Points / drive1.86
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 37/46 | 277 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 14 | 96 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 8 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 7 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cam Grandy | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/31 | 148 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 8 | 11 | 85 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.11