2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

19·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Russell Wilson

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 19°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.107EPA / play-0.027
  • 48.0%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.124
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +6.81CPOE+3.65
  • 47.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.50Points / drive1.86
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN
2022 · W1PIT @ CIN23–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
CINQ1 15:00973Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 9:493-6Punt7–0
CINQ1 7:471037Field goal10–0
PITQ1 1:241563Touchdown10–7
CINQ2 9:54714Turnover on downs10–7
PITQ2 6:3337Punt10–7
CINQ2 5:3248Punt10–7
CINQ2 2:46512Turnover10–7
PITQ2 1:10620Turnover on downs10–7
CINQ2 0:48628Field goal13–7
PITQ2 0:161-9End of half13–7
PITQ3 15:0032Punt13–7
CINQ3 13:241047Field goal16–7
PITQ3 6:56514Punt16–7
CINQ3 4:331482Field goal19–7
PITQ4 11:02965Touchdown19–14
CINQ4 8:07518Punt19–14
PITQ4 5:5439Punt19–14
PITQ4 5:14612Field goal19–17
CINQ4 2:393-4Punt19–17
PITQ4 1:51716Turnover on downs19–17
CINQ4 0:1100End of half19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow37/4627711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert20693.50
Joe Burrow1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase1014961
Mike Gesicki810680
Tee Higgins45530
Drew Sample44140
Khalil Herbert78140
Andrei Iosivas23120
Tanner Hudson11110
Cam Grandy1190

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/3114810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris12363.01
Jaylen Warren6213.50
Russell Wilson4164.00
Cordarrelle Patterson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth811851
Mike Williams11250
Najee Harris45200
Van Jefferson34180
Jaylen Warren0100
George Pickens1600
Calvin Austin III0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.11