Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play-0.064
- 44.4%Success rate42.3%
- +0.050EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.09CPOE-0.21
- 38.3%Third-down rate37.3%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.91Points / drive1.54
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 28/42 | 335 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 8 | 140 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Charlie Jones | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 17/27 | 290 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 19 | 78 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 4 | 6 | 195 | 2 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
6.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.50
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.20