2023 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jake Browning

11·34

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

6.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.001EPA / play-0.064
  • 44.4%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.069
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.09CPOE-0.21
  • 38.3%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.54
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN
2022 · W1PIT @ CIN23–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
CINQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:37292Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:451059Turnover0–7
PITQ1 5:011080Touchdown0–14
CINQ2 14:213-9Punt0–14
PITQ2 13:1253Punt0–14
CINQ2 11:00411Turnover0–14
PITQ2 8:41414Touchdown0–21
CINQ2 7:06870Turnover on downs0–21
PITQ2 2:141274Field goal0–24
PITQ3 15:00620Punt6–24
CINQ3 11:22180Touchdown8–24
PITQ3 11:11375Touchdown8–31
CINQ3 9:38843Turnover on downs8–31
PITQ3 6:383-2Punt8–31
CINQ3 5:081246Field goal11–31
PITQ4 15:0036Punt11–31
CINQ4 13:2736Turnover11–31
PITQ4 12:26831Field goal11–34
CINQ4 6:57625Punt11–34
PITQ4 2:5734Punt11–34
CINQ4 1:02215End of half11–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Browning28/4233513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon11433.90
Chase Brown4164.00
Jake Browning100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins581401
Tyler Boyd57590
Drew Sample33380
Trenton Irwin44370
Andrei Iosivas48360
Chase Brown2280
Joe Mixon2470
Mitchell Wilcox1160
Tanner Hudson1250
Charlie Jones11-10

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph17/2729020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris19784.11
Jaylen Warren8243.00
Calvin Austin III177.01
Mason Rudolph242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens461952
Allen Robinson44360
Jaylen Warren56300
Diontae Johnson25150
Darnell Washington1180
Miles Boykin1160
Calvin Austin III0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

6.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.50
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.20