2023 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

16·10

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jake Browning

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -2

Total

36

Model margin

+2.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • -0.064EPA / play+0.001
  • 42.3%Success rate44.4%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.103
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.21CPOE+2.09
  • 37.3%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.91
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN
2022 · W1PIT @ CIN23–20PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
PITQ1 15:00432Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:093-3Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:311151Turnover0–0
CINQ1 4:34422Punt0–0
PITQ1 1:23766Field goal3–0
CINQ2 12:39453Touchdown3–7
PITQ2 10:30416Punt3–7
CINQ2 8:163-4Punt3–7
PITQ2 6:25513Punt3–7
CINQ2 3:16531Punt3–7
PITQ2 1:38743Punt3–7
CINQ2 0:2400End of half3–7
CINQ3 15:001057Turnover3–7
PITQ3 9:241479Touchdown10–7
CINQ3 1:34622Punt10–7
PITQ4 13:101072Field goal13–7
CINQ4 8:033-2Punt13–7
PITQ4 5:58652Field goal16–7
CINQ4 2:51447Field goal16–10
PITQ4 2:0400End of half16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett24/3327800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris15996.61
Jaylen Warren13493.80
Kenny Pickett551.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth9111200
George Pickens35580
Diontae Johnson48500
Jaylen Warren33130
Allen Robinson11110
Darnell Washington11100
Calvin Austin III1150

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Browning19/2622711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon8162.00
Jake Browning393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase46810
Joe Mixon22440
Trenton Irwin11250
Tyler Boyd35230
Tanner Hudson45180
Andrei Iosivas12160
Drew Sample11111
Irv Smith2280
Mitchell Wilcox1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.28
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.23