Closing spread
PIT -2
Total
36
Model margin
+2.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play+0.001
- 42.3%Success rate44.4%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.103
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.21CPOE+2.09
- 37.3%Third-down rate38.3%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.54Points / drive1.91
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 24/33 | 278 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 15 | 99 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 9 | 11 | 120 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 19/26 | 227 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.28
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.23