Closing spread
SEA -1.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SD are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:00 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:16 | 5 | 27 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 5:28 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:49 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 2:29 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:11 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 13:07 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q2 10:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 8:45 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 4:13 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 2:52 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 2:44 | 6 | 34 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 0:42 | 5 | 37 | End of half | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q3 12:00 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q3 8:28 | 8 | 24 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q3 5:37 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q3 2:53 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q3 1:25 | 9 | 29 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q4 13:02 | 7 | 6 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q4 10:29 | 7 | 41 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q4 6:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q4 5:33 | 4 | 45 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q4 2:54 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q4 1:34 | 5 | 45 | Field goal | 10–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 17/29 | 151 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 21 | 54 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Fauria | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.