Closing spread
SEA -1.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. SD are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 17/29 | 151 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 21 | 54 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Fauria | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.