Closing spread
SD -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. SD are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 36/53 | 449 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Itula Mili | 7 | 9 | 119 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 9 | 12 | 103 | 1 |
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 9 | 90 | 1 |
| Bobby Engram | 6 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| James Williams | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.