Closing spread
SD -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SD are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:49 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:33 | 6 | 45 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:05 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 2:37 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:41 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q2 11:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 10:48 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 8:21 | 5 | 34 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 5:37 | 6 | 78 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 1:51 | 8 | 37 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 57 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| SEA | Q3 12:06 | 12 | 42 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q3 5:28 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q3 0:59 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q4 13:59 | 13 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| SEA | Q4 8:37 | 5 | 58 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| LAC | Q4 6:14 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 21–28 |
| SEA | Q4 3:32 | 18 | 82 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| LAC | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–28 |
| SEA | OT | 9 | 40 | Turnover | 28–28 |
| LAC | OT | 3 | -9 | Punt | 28–28 |
| SEA | OT | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 31–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 36/53 | 449 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Itula Mili | 7 | 9 | 119 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 9 | 12 | 103 | 1 |
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 9 | 90 | 1 |
| Bobby Engram | 6 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| James Williams | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.