2018 · Week 9

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

25·17

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.126EPA / play+0.093
  • 47.0%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.208
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.027
  • 12.5%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +3.54CPOE+7.30
  • 39.7%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 70.7%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.23
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SEA are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4LAC @ SEA23–30SEA
2022 · W7SEA @ LAC37–23SEA
2014 · W2SEA @ SD21–30CHARGERS
2010 · W3SD @ SEA20–27SEA
2006 · W16SD @ SEA20–17CHARGERS
2002 · W17SEA @ SD31–28SEA
2001 · W16SEA @ SD25–22SEA
2001 · W12SD @ SEA10–13SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001375Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 6:551094Touchdown6–7
SEAQ2 15:0032Punt6–7
LACQ2 12:40488Touchdown12–7
SEAQ2 11:3632Punt12–7
LACQ2 10:0230Punt12–7
SEAQ2 8:57554Missed field goal12–7
LACQ2 5:4932Punt12–7
SEAQ2 4:47620Punt12–7
LACQ2 2:05565Touchdown19–7
SEAQ2 1:10639Field goal19–10
LACQ3 15:00418Punt19–10
SEAQ3 12:2935Punt19–10
LACQ3 10:54661Missed field goal19–10
SEAQ3 7:13832Punt19–10
LACQ3 2:26523Punt19–10
SEAQ4 14:50517Punt19–10
LACQ4 11:55731Punt19–10
SEAQ4 7:51313Opp touchdown25–10
SEAQ4 6:441654Touchdown25–17
LACQ4 1:503-7Punt25–17
SEAQ4 1:24843End of half25–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers13/2622820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon161137.11
Keenan Allen22814.00
Austin Ekeler3217.00
Travis Benjamin1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen6101240
Mike Williams13301
Virgil Green23280
Tyrell Williams23231
Austin Ekeler12130
Melvin Gordon14100
Travis Benjamin0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson26/3923521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis15624.10
Russell Wilson5418.20
Chris Carson8405.00
Rashaad Penny4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin44770
Nick Vannett68521
Mike Davis78450
Tyler Lockett34220
David Moore27160
Rashaad Penny33130
Jaron Brown12101
Ed Dickson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.55