Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play+0.093
- 47.0%Success rate44.2%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.208
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.027
- 12.5%Explosive rate11.2%
- +3.54CPOE+7.30
- 39.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 70.7%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.31Points / drive2.23
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. SEA are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 13/26 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 16 | 113 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 10 | 124 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 26/39 | 235 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 4 | 77 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 6 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 7 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.55