Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+12.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chargersedge mapSeahawks
- -0.167EPA / play+0.029
- 40.0%Success rate38.8%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.196
- -0.360EPA / rush-0.195
- 5.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- -6.21CPOE+2.36
- 25.0%Third-down rate18.2%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 1.39Points / drive1.29
- 3.6%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. SEA are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.76
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.98