2026 · Week 4

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

23·30

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Drew Lock

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

42.5

Model margin

+8.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.209EPA / play-0.042
  • 36.9%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.191EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.235EPA / rush-0.225
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -5.83CPOE+1.94
  • 33.8%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 59.2%Red-zone TD rate58.1%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.93
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SEA are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W7SEA @ LAC37–23SEA
2018 · W9LAC @ SEA25–17CHARGERS
2014 · W2SEA @ SD21–30CHARGERS
2010 · W3SD @ SEA20–27SEA
2006 · W16SD @ SEA20–17CHARGERS
2002 · W17SEA @ SD31–28SEA
2001 · W16SEA @ SD25–22SEA
2001 · W12SD @ SEA10–13SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–SEA
LACQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 14:4610Turnover0–0
LACQ1 14:38825Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 11:54417Punt3–6
SEAQ1 10:03123Touchdown3–7
LACQ1 9:5537Punt3–7
SEAQ1 8:14624Punt3–7
LACQ1 5:02522Punt3–7
SEAQ1 2:3235Punt3–7
LACQ1 1:053-1Punt3–7
SEAQ2 14:11524Punt3–7
LACQ2 11:4436Punt3–7
SEAQ2 10:23765Touchdown3–13
LACQ2 6:123-4Punt3–13
SEAQ2 3:26312Punt3–13
LACQ2 1:5022Turnover3–13
SEAQ2 1:20220Touchdown3–20
LACQ2 0:43435Field goal6–20
SEAQ3 15:00863Touchdown6–27
LACQ3 10:231156Touchdown13–27
SEAQ3 4:53822Field goal13–30
LACQ3 1:191870Touchdown20–30
SEAQ4 7:48523Punt20–30
LACQ4 4:01774Field goal23–30
SEAQ4 2:145-10Punt23–30
LACQ4 1:4239Turnover23–30
SEAQ4 0:5400End of half23–30

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert19/3118912
Tre Harris0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Omarion Hampton9455.01
Justin Herbert6406.70
Keaton Mitchell10393.90
Kimani Vidal5255.00
Oronde Gadsden II122.00
Quentin Johnston1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Harris35600
Quentin Johnston12440
Oronde Gadsden II58360
Keaton Mitchell56240
Kimani Vidal23111
Omarion Hampton2280
Derius Davis1160
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100
Justin Herbert0100
Ladd McConkey0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold13/2216821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emanuel Wilson21813.91
Rashid Shaheed23316.51
George Holani7182.60
Sam Darnold362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba56760
Emanuel Wilson34391
Rashid Shaheed13200
Cooper Kupp12130
AJ Barner13120
Tory Horton1161
George Holani1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +72.8%5.5%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.4%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.24