Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Seahawks
- OutChristine MichaelRBHamstring· DNP
- OutKevin Pierre-LouisLBHamstring· DNP
- OutTharold SimonCBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulCooper HelfetTEKnee· Limited
Chargers
- OutChris DavisCBAnkle· DNP
- OutJahleel AddaeSHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon FlowersCBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableMelvin IngramLBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableCorey LiugetDEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAntonio GatesTEHamstring· Full
- ProbableD.J. FlukerTKnee· Full
- ProbableKeenan AllenWRRibs· Full
- ProbableSean LissemoreDTAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SD are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 46 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:53 | 13 | 48 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 2:52 | 3 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 1:27 | 11 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 12:05 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 9:48 | 10 | 41 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| SEA | Q2 4:40 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q2 4:34 | 8 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q2 1:04 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q2 0:12 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 14–20 |
| SEA | Q3 11:32 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q3 9:25 | 13 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| SEA | Q3 3:01 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
| LAC | Q3 0:03 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 21–27 |
| SEA | Q4 10:16 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 21–27 |
| LAC | Q4 7:57 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 21–27 |
| SEA | Q4 3:04 | 4 | -1 | Turnover on downs | 21–27 |
| LAC | Q4 1:46 | 3 | -5 | Field goal | 21–30 |
| SEA | Q4 0:16 | 2 | 14 | End of half | 21–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/25 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin-1.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.