Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. SD are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/25 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin-1.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.