Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. SEA are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/32 | 220 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | 5 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.