Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- DoubtfulRyan MathewsRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJyles TuckerLBNot Injury Related· DNP
- QuestionableLarry EnglishLBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableStephen CooperLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableMalcom FloydWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableQuentin JammerCBFoot· Full
Seahawks
- OutLeRoy HillLBCalf· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutRussell OkungTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableE.J. WilsonDEKnee· DNP
- DNPWill HerringLBNon Injury Related
- ProbableQuinton GantherRBKnee· Limited
- ProbableSean LocklearTKnee· Limited
- ProbableBen HamiltonGKnee· Full
- ProbableChester PittsGKnee· Full
- ProbableMatt McCoyLBQuadricep· Full
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SEA are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:52 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:27 | 9 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:32 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 1:06 | 8 | 80 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 11:28 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q2 9:57 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 9:48 | 11 | 78 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q2 5:15 | 9 | 92 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 1:38 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q2 1:15 | 4 | 18 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:53 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 0:47 | 4 | 23 | Turnover | 0–16 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q3 14:47 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q3 12:33 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q3 8:57 | 9 | 46 | Punt | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q3 4:38 | 2 | -7 | Safety | 9–17 |
| LAC | Q3 4:31 | 8 | 49 | Field goal | 12–17 |
| SEA | Q3 0:37 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 12–17 |
| LAC | Q4 13:43 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 12–17 |
| SEA | Q4 12:26 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 12–20 |
| LAC | Q4 11:27 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 20–26 |
| SEA | Q4 6:39 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| LAC | Q4 6:24 | 8 | 75 | Turnover on downs | 20–27 |
| SEA | Q4 2:28 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 20–27 |
| LAC | Q4 1:38 | 6 | 43 | Turnover | 20–27 |
| SEA | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/32 | 220 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | 5 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.