2022 · Week 7

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

37·23

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -5.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapChargers
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.007
  • 44.8%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.057
  • 9.2%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +5.46CPOE+1.13
  • 37.4%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 54.3%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.97
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. LAC are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4LAC @ SEA23–30SEA
2018 · W9LAC @ SEA25–17CHARGERS
2014 · W2SEA @ SD21–30CHARGERS
2010 · W3SD @ SEA20–27SEA
2006 · W16SD @ SEA20–17CHARGERS
2002 · W17SEA @ SD31–28SEA
2001 · W16SEA @ SD25–22SEA
2001 · W12SD @ SEA10–13SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–LAC
SEAQ1 15:00431Turnover0–0
LACQ1 13:2045Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ1 11:401263Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 7:29418Turnover7–0
SEAQ1 5:26532Touchdown14–0
LACQ1 4:17515Turnover14–0
SEAQ1 2:343-9Field goal17–0
LACQ1 1:08875Touchdown17–7
SEAQ2 12:4427Turnover17–7
LACQ2 12:00633Touchdown17–14
SEAQ2 9:37627Punt17–14
LACQ2 5:333-4Punt17–14
SEAQ2 4:23773Touchdown24–14
LACQ2 1:40622Punt24–14
SEAQ2 0:2500End of half24–14
LACQ3 15:00739Punt24–14
SEAQ3 11:261777Field goal27–14
LACQ3 1:06623Punt27–16
SEAQ4 14:201-2Safety27–16
LACQ4 14:173-4Punt27–16
SEAQ4 12:47718Field goal30–16
LACQ4 9:09749Turnover on downs36–16
SEAQ4 7:08174Touchdown37–16
LACQ4 6:561258Touchdown37–23
SEAQ4 3:22415End of half37–23

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith20/2721021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III231677.32
DeeJay Dallas6355.80
Geno Smith471.80
Dee Eskridge144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin45672
Tyler Lockett78450
Will Dissly44450
Colby Parkinson11280
DK Metcalf12120
Noah Fant1370
DeeJay Dallas2260
Dee Eskridge0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert33/5129321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler9313.41
Justin Herbert3227.30
Sony Michel252.50
Isaiah Spiller1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Ekeler1212961
Mike Williams79861
Gerald Everett59630
DeAndre Carter37370
Keenan Allen22110
Sony Michel1380
Jason Moore1250
Michael Bandy16-50
Justin Herbert11-80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.90