Closing spread
LAC -5.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.007
- 44.8%Success rate44.1%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.057
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.9%
- +5.46CPOE+1.13
- 37.4%Third-down rate43.5%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.05Points / drive1.97
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. LAC are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/27 | 210 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 23 | 167 | 7.3 | 2 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 5 | 67 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 7 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 33/51 | 293 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 12 | 96 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 7 | 9 | 86 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jason Moore | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Bandy | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.90