Closing spread
SD -4
Total
45
Model margin
+3.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. SEA are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/37 | 189 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 31 | 140 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.