Closing spread
SD -4
Total
45
Model margin
+3.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SEA are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:52 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:19 | 8 | 49 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:17 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:11 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:22 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 14:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q2 12:43 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 9:36 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q2 8:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 7:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q2 6:14 | 6 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q2 3:18 | 8 | 46 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 1:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q2 0:34 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q3 12:12 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q3 9:58 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q3 8:06 | 6 | 52 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q3 6:10 | 8 | 61 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| SEA | Q3 2:24 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q3 1:14 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–7 |
| SEA | Q4 14:53 | 6 | 30 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q4 12:58 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–14 |
| SEA | Q4 11:16 | 11 | 47 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| LAC | Q4 5:07 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 13–17 |
| SEA | Q4 3:51 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–17 |
| LAC | Q4 2:00 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| SEA | Q4 0:29 | 4 | 17 | End of half | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/37 | 189 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 31 | 140 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.