Closing spread
SD -1.5
Total
39
Model margin
-0.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. SD are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:35 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:15 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:44 | 4 | 26 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 7:55 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:38 | 4 | 46 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q1 4:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 3:03 | 9 | 70 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q2 13:31 | 3 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q2 12:01 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–13 |
| SEA | Q2 10:22 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| LAC | Q2 7:19 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 14–13 |
| SEA | Q2 2:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LAC | Q2 1:35 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| SEA | Q2 0:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| SEA | Q3 9:33 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 22–16 |
| LAC | Q3 6:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 22–16 |
| SEA | Q3 5:01 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 22–16 |
| LAC | Q3 1:46 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 22–16 |
| SEA | Q3 1:36 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 22–16 |
| LAC | Q4 14:48 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 22–19 |
| SEA | Q4 10:11 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 22–19 |
| LAC | Q4 8:59 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 22–19 |
| SEA | Q4 5:47 | 7 | 55 | Missed field goal | 22–19 |
| LAC | Q4 2:37 | 11 | 44 | Field goal | 22–22 |
| SEA | Q4 0:16 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 25–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 14/23 | 267 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 23 | 59 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 9 | 114 | 2 |
| James Williams | 4 | 5 | 101 | 1 |
| Bobby Engram | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.