Closing spread
SD -1.5
Total
39
Model margin
-0.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. SD are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 14/23 | 267 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 23 | 59 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 5 | 9 | 114 | 2 |
| James Williams | 4 | 5 | 101 | 1 |
| Bobby Engram | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.