Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.063
- 38.5%Success rate41.6%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.220EPA / rush-0.048
- 7.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- 35.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.22Points / drive1.27
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999
PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. PIT are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:20 | 8 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 7:36 | 10 | 53 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 2:37 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 2:28 | 2 | 11 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 1:36 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q2 14:51 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q2 13:13 | 11 | 51 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q2 7:40 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q2 5:01 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 2:47 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 6 | Punt | 0–13 |
| PIT | Q3 9:26 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–13 |
| ATL | Q3 8:08 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 0–13 |
| PIT | Q3 6:13 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 0–13 |
| ATL | Q3 1:48 | 9 | 19 | Punt | 0–13 |
| PIT | Q4 13:41 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–13 |
| ATL | Q4 11:35 | 10 | 41 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| PIT | Q4 6:42 | 5 | 31 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| ATL | Q4 3:39 | 5 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 7–13 |
| PIT | Q4 1:45 | 4 | -1 | Safety | 9–13 |
| ATL | Q4 1:20 | 8 | 54 | End of half | 9–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 20/34 | 233 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Oxendine | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 12 | 17 | 166 | 1 |
| Tim Dwight | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 13/21 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Blackwell | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Mark Bruener | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.27