Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.063
- 38.5%Success rate41.6%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.220EPA / rush-0.048
- 7.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- 35.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.22Points / drive1.27
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999
PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. PIT are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 20/34 | 233 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Oxendine | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 12 | 17 | 166 | 1 |
| Tim Dwight | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 13/21 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Blackwell | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Mark Bruener | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.27