2026 · Week 1

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Cooper Rush

13·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PIT -6.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+7.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.087EPA / play-0.011
  • 42.9%Success rate42.8%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.027EPA / rush+0.097
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -7.31CPOE-2.16
  • 35.0%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.87
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999

PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. PIT are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1PIT @ ATL18–10PIT
2022 · W13PIT @ ATL19–16PIT
2018 · W5ATL @ PIT17–41PIT
2014 · W15PIT @ ATL27–20PIT
2010 · W1ATL @ PIT9–15PIT
2006 · W7PIT @ ATL38–41ATL
2002 · W10ATL @ PIT34–34Tie
1999 · W7ATL @ PIT9–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PIT
PITQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:513-1Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:04743Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 8:30827Punt0–3
PITQ1 4:42412Turnover0–3
ATLQ1 2:41325Touchdown7–3
PITQ1 1:13919Field goal7–6
ATLQ2 12:2810Turnover7–6
PITQ2 12:06431Touchdown7–13
ATLQ2 10:39512Punt7–13
PITQ2 7:3742Punt7–13
ATLQ2 5:59619Missed field goal7–13
PITQ2 2:33822Turnover on downs7–13
ATLQ2 1:00412Punt7–13
PITQ2 0:28312End of half7–13
ATLQ3 15:00825Missed field goal7–13
PITQ3 10:5434Punt7–13
ATLQ3 9:19626Punt7–13
PITQ3 6:43540Turnover on downs7–13
ATLQ3 4:41420Field goal10–13
PITQ3 1:5037Punt10–13
ATLQ3 0:02320Opp touchdown10–20
ATLQ4 14:05542Field goal13–20
PITQ4 10:35522Missed field goal13–20
ATLQ4 6:58411Punt13–20
PITQ4 4:16749End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush12/2214312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson21834.00
Brian Robinson9313.40
Drake London166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bijan Robinson810901
Drake London24290
Jahan Dotson13190
Olamide Zaccheaus1150
Kyle Pitts0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/4022110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren10464.60
Rico Dowdle8151.90
Aaron Rodgers3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman33580
Pat Freiermuth55461
DK Metcalf410400
Jaylen Warren56270
Roman Wilson36260
Darnell Washington22180
Rico Dowdle2560

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.2%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.73
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.34