Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+7.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.358EPA / play-0.251
- 36.7%Success rate33.8%
- -0.638EPA / dropback-0.251
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.252
- 10.0%Explosive rate6.2%
- -10.42CPOE+1.23
- 16.7%Third-down rate25.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 0.46Points / drive1.00
- 3.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999
PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. PIT are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 12/22 | 143 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Drake London | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 8 | 10 | 90 | 1 |
| Drake London | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/40 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 10 | 40 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Roman Wilson | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.7%
Expected total
27.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.29
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.51