2014 · Week 15

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

27·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

55

Model margin

-0.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.007
  • 48.4%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.161
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +5.59CPOE+1.47
  • 45.6%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.87
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999

PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. ATL are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1ATL @ PIT13–20PIT
2024 · W1PIT @ ATL18–10PIT
2022 · W13PIT @ ATL19–16PIT
2018 · W5ATL @ PIT17–41PIT
2010 · W1ATL @ PIT9–15PIT
2006 · W7PIT @ ATL38–41ATL
2002 · W10ATL @ PIT34–34Tie
1999 · W7ATL @ PIT9–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–ATL
PITQ1 15:00960Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 9:09836Punt3–0
PITQ1 5:04872Field goal6–0
ATLQ1 0:0210Opp touchdown13–0
ATLQ2 14:46625Punt13–0
PITQ2 11:2938Punt13–0
ATLQ2 9:481071Touchdown13–7
PITQ2 4:191180Touchdown20–7
ATLQ2 0:27428End of half20–7
ATLQ3 15:00680Field goal20–10
PITQ3 11:00420Punt20–10
ATLQ3 8:441275Field goal20–13
PITQ3 2:40680Touchdown27–13
ATLQ4 14:111084Touchdown27–20
PITQ4 10:21729Punt27–20
ATLQ4 6:2338Punt27–20
PITQ4 4:34851End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger27/3536000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell20472.42
Ben Roethlisberger2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown10101230
Le'Veon Bell57720
Heath Miller45680
Markus Wheaton55660
Martavis Bryant35310
Lance Moore0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/3731021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson11464.20
Matt Ryan3279.00
Devonta Freeman4215.30
Jacquizz Rodgers231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas10141310
Devin Hester56851
Roddy White710581
Jacquizz Rodgers12120
Steven Jackson11110
Devonta Freeman1290
Levine Toilolo1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.0%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.76