Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
55
Model margin
-0.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.007
- 48.4%Success rate44.0%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.161
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- +5.59CPOE+1.47
- 45.6%Third-down rate44.6%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 2.26Points / drive1.87
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999
PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. ATL are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27/35 | 360 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 20 | 47 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 10 | 10 | 123 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 5 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/37 | 310 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 10 | 14 | 131 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 5 | 6 | 85 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 7 | 10 | 58 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.76