2024 · Week 1

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Justin Fields

18·10

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -4

Total

43

Model margin

+3.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.027EPA / play+0.041
  • 40.7%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.015
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +3.65CPOE-0.01
  • 39.7%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.10
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999

PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. ATL are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1ATL @ PIT13–20PIT
2022 · W13PIT @ ATL19–16PIT
2018 · W5ATL @ PIT17–41PIT
2014 · W15PIT @ ATL27–20PIT
2010 · W1ATL @ PIT9–15PIT
2006 · W7PIT @ ATL38–41ATL
2002 · W10ATL @ PIT34–34Tie
1999 · W7ATL @ PIT9–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001259Field goal0–3
PITQ1 9:06931Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 4:3729Turnover3–3
PITQ1 4:02918Field goal6–3
ATLQ2 12:54722Punt6–3
PITQ2 8:58938Punt6–3
ATLQ2 3:501085Touchdown6–10
PITQ2 0:32345Field goal9–10
PITQ3 15:003-9Punt9–10
ATLQ3 12:56519Turnover9–10
PITQ3 10:29819Field goal12–10
ATLQ3 7:4575Punt12–10
PITQ3 3:49556Field goal15–10
ATLQ3 0:2545Punt15–10
PITQ4 14:171372Turnover on downs15–10
ATLQ4 7:09411Punt15–10
PITQ4 5:133-11Punt15–10
ATLQ4 3:20213Turnover15–10
PITQ4 2:34611Field goal18–10
ATLQ4 0:282-2End of half18–10

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields17/2315600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris20703.50
Justin Fields14574.10
Cordarrelle Patterson4133.30
Jaylen Warren273.50
George Pickens1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens67850
Pat Freiermuth44270
Jaylen Warren22130
MyCole Pruitt1290
Najee Harris1290
Calvin Austin III1270
Darnell Washington1150
Van Jefferson1210

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins16/2615512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson18683.80
Tyler Allgeier3217.00
Kirk Cousins100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray-Ray McCloud47520
Bijan Robinson55430
Kyle Pitts33261
Darnell Mooney13150
Drake London23150
Charlie Woerner1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.14
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.41