Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.041
- 40.7%Success rate48.4%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.015
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- +3.65CPOE-0.01
- 39.7%Third-down rate39.1%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.86Points / drive2.10
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999
PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. ATL are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 17/23 | 156 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 20 | 70 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 6 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 16/26 | 155 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 18 | 68 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Drake London | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.41