Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
57
Model margin
+1.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.102
- 46.6%Success rate47.5%
- +0.200EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.112
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.21CPOE+1.39
- 45.1%Third-down rate43.9%
- 72.2%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
- 2.34Points / drive2.23
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999
PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. PIT are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/38 | 285 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 5/7 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 9 | 12 | 77 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ricky Ortiz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 19/29 | 250 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 21 | 110 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 13 | 101 | 2 |
| James Conner | 4 | 4 | 75 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.53