2018 · Week 5

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

17·41

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

57

Model margin

+1.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.102
  • 46.6%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.200EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.112
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +4.21CPOE+1.39
  • 45.1%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 72.2%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
  • 2.34Points / drive2.23
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999

PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. PIT are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1ATL @ PIT13–20PIT
2024 · W1PIT @ ATL18–10PIT
2022 · W13PIT @ ATL19–16PIT
2014 · W15PIT @ ATL27–20PIT
2010 · W1ATL @ PIT9–15PIT
2006 · W7PIT @ ATL38–41ATL
2002 · W10ATL @ PIT34–34Tie
1999 · W7ATL @ PIT9–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PIT
PITQ1 15:00878Touchdown0–6
ATLQ1 10:441037Punt0–6
PITQ1 5:151354Touchdown0–13
ATLQ1 0:37875Touchdown7–13
PITQ2 11:2136Punt7–13
ATLQ2 10:191330Field goal10–13
PITQ2 4:2339Punt10–13
ATLQ2 2:1138Punt10–13
PITQ2 1:42633Turnover10–13
ATLQ2 0:18344End of half10–13
ATLQ3 15:00618Punt10–13
PITQ3 10:481290Touchdown10–20
ATLQ3 3:4231Punt10–20
PITQ3 2:37316Touchdown10–27
ATLQ3 1:39960Touchdown17–27
PITQ4 12:28575Touchdown17–34
ATLQ4 9:41632Turnover on downs17–34
PITQ4 7:59723Punt17–34
ATLQ4 3:5630Opp touchdown17–41
ATLQ4 3:35819Turnover on downs17–41
PITQ4 0:4200End of half17–41

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/3828510
Matt Schaub5/72000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman8324.00
Tevin Coleman7152.10
Matt Ryan11010.00
Ito Smith351.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper912770
Mohamed Sanu47731
Julio Jones59620
Calvin Ridley45380
Marvin Hall23250
Tevin Coleman22150
Devonta Freeman2290
Eric Saubert1280
Ito Smith1150
Ricky Ortiz0100
Matt Schaub11-70

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger19/2925031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner211105.22
Ben Roethlisberger2168.00
Stevan Ridley581.60
Joshua Dobbs1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown6131012
James Conner44750
JuJu Smith-Schuster44341
Jesse James22200
Xavier Grimble1190
Vance McDonald1260
Ryan Switzer1150
James Washington0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.53