Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.050
- 43.1%Success rate39.9%
- +0.069EPA / dropback-0.078
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.04CPOE-2.80
- 43.2%Third-down rate36.3%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.68Points / drive1.44
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999
PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. ATL are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/22 | 238 | 3 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 8/13 | 195 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 20 | 47 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 18/30 | 232 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 26 | 69 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 8 | 64 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.53