2006 · Week 7

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

38·41

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.050
  • 43.1%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback-0.078
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.021
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +1.04CPOE-2.80
  • 43.2%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 48.8%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.44
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999

PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. ATL are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1ATL @ PIT13–20PIT
2024 · W1PIT @ ATL18–10PIT
2022 · W13PIT @ ATL19–16PIT
2018 · W5ATL @ PIT17–41PIT
2014 · W15PIT @ ATL27–20PIT
2010 · W1ATL @ PIT9–15PIT
2002 · W10ATL @ PIT34–34Tie
1999 · W7ATL @ PIT9–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0041Punt0–6
ATLQ1 13:19122Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 13:121048Field goal3–7
ATLQ1 8:4634Turnover3–7
PITQ1 7:45961Touchdown10–7
ATLQ1 2:2237Punt10–7
PITQ1 0:38991Touchdown17–7
ATLQ2 9:5639Punt17–7
PITQ2 7:3910Turnover17–7
ATLQ2 7:36620Touchdown17–14
PITQ2 4:4600Touchdown17–14
ATLQ2 4:45751Touchdown17–21
PITQ2 2:04680Touchdown24–21
ATLQ2 0:5810Turnover24–21
PITQ2 0:4700End of half24–21
PITQ3 15:003-10Punt24–21
ATLQ3 12:5337Punt24–21
PITQ3 10:4471Turnover24–21
ATLQ3 7:29524Touchdown24–28
PITQ3 5:44480Touchdown31–28
ATLQ3 4:11675Touchdown31–35
PITQ3 1:1033Punt31–35
ATLQ3 0:08614Punt31–35
PITQ4 12:33417Punt31–35
ATLQ4 10:34651Field goal31–38
PITQ4 6:24679Touchdown38–38
ATLQ4 3:19944Missed field goal38–38
PITQ4 0:25125End of half38–38
ATLOT1070Field goal38–41

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger16/2223830
Charlie Batch8/1319520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker20472.40
Nate Washington100.00
Najeh Davenport1-1-1.00
Ben Roethlisberger3-2-0.70

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick18/3023242

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn26692.71
Jerious Norwood8648.00
Mike Vick5408.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.53