Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.035
- 43.3%Success rate40.3%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.126
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.5%
- +0.37CPOE+3.44
- 46.9%Third-down rate44.1%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.13Points / drive1.89
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999
PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. PIT are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/44 | 252 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 19 | 42 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 13 | 23 | 111 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Dixon | 18/26 | 236 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 22 | 120 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Dennis Dixon | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 6 | 7 | 108 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.18