2010 · Week 1

Final / OT

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

9·15

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Dennis Dixon

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

38.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.066EPA / play+0.035
  • 43.3%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.126
  • 6.3%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +0.37CPOE+3.44
  • 46.9%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.89
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999

PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. PIT are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1ATL @ PIT13–20PIT
2024 · W1PIT @ ATL18–10PIT
2022 · W13PIT @ ATL19–16PIT
2018 · W5ATL @ PIT17–41PIT
2014 · W15PIT @ ATL27–20PIT
2006 · W7PIT @ ATL38–41ATL
2002 · W10ATL @ PIT34–34Tie
1999 · W7ATL @ PIT9–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PIT
PITQ1 15:001040Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 7:5146Punt0–3
PITQ1 6:1536Punt0–3
ATLQ1 4:373-7Punt0–3
PITQ1 3:2637Punt0–3
ATLQ1 1:50517Punt0–3
PITQ2 14:5339Punt0–3
ATLQ2 12:40832Punt0–3
PITQ2 9:11858Turnover0–3
ATLQ2 4:34644Missed field goal0–3
PITQ2 1:45727Missed field goal0–3
ATLQ2 0:17324Field goal3–3
ATLQ3 15:001361Field goal6–3
PITQ3 10:40567Field goal6–6
ATLQ3 6:53928Punt6–6
PITQ3 1:5339Punt6–6
ATLQ3 0:1338Punt6–6
PITQ4 14:01967Field goal6–9
ATLQ4 8:541264Field goal9–9
PITQ4 3:2455Punt9–9
ATLQ4 1:4510Turnover9–9
PITQ4 1:4039Missed field goal9–9
ATLQ4 0:3913End of half9–9
ATLOT615Punt9–15
PITOT150Touchdown9–15

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/4425201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner19422.20
Jerious Norwood284.00
Matt Ryan242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White13231110
Harry Douglas33390
Eric Weems44360
Tony Gonzalez25350
Justin Peelle22110
Jerious Norwood1390
Michael Turner1170
Brian Finneran0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dennis Dixon18/2623601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall221205.51
Isaac Redman6193.20
Dennis Dixon242.00
Mewelde Moore100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward671080
Mike Wallace25620
Heath Miller45400
Rashard Mendenhall22150
Antwaan Randle El2580
Mewelde Moore2230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.39
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.18