2002 · Week 10

Final / OT

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

34·34

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.008
  • 42.3%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.038EPA / rush-0.073
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 42.9%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.71
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.086

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999

PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. PIT are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1ATL @ PIT13–20PIT
2024 · W1PIT @ ATL18–10PIT
2022 · W13PIT @ ATL19–16PIT
2018 · W5ATL @ PIT17–41PIT
2014 · W15PIT @ ATL27–20PIT
2010 · W1ATL @ PIT9–15PIT
2006 · W7PIT @ ATL38–41ATL
1999 · W7ATL @ PIT9–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PIT
PITQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:191141Turnover0–0
PITQ1 6:17646Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 3:3931Punt0–0
PITQ1 2:08418Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 0:09477Touchdown7–3
PITQ2 13:42890Touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 9:0830Punt7–10
PITQ2 8:37466Touchdown7–17
ATLQ2 7:1533Punt7–17
PITQ2 5:46410Punt7–17
ATLQ2 3:5039Punt7–17
PITQ2 2:26845Missed field goal7–17
ATLQ3 15:00680Touchdown14–17
PITQ3 12:17474Touchdown14–23
ATLQ3 10:421163Field goal17–23
PITQ3 6:07767Touchdown17–31
ATLQ3 2:2528Turnover17–31
PITQ3 1:33721Field goal17–34
ATLQ4 12:3442Punt17–34
ATLQ4 10:18536Touchdown24–34
PITQ4 7:4432Punt24–34
ATLQ4 5:101173Field goal27–34
PITQ4 2:2637Punt27–34
ATLQ4 1:55645Touchdown34–34
PITQ4 0:42432End of half34–34
PITOT650Missed field goal34–34
ATLOT3-14Punt34–34
PITOT1154Punt34–34
ATLOT616Punt34–34
PITOT318Turnover34–34
ATLOT37Missed field goal34–34
PITOT150End of half34–34

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick24/4629410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn201296.51
Mike Vick10383.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shawn Jefferson9131311
Brian Finneran611720
Trevor Gaylor12270
Alge Crumpler26250
Warrick Dunn33140
Quentin McCord1460

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox28/4147341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Amos Zereoue371233.30
Hines Ward12929.00
Antwaan Randle El22311.50
Tommy Maddox273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress9132532
Hines Ward11161391
Antwaan Randle El33510
Jerame Tuman11181
Terance Mathis24150
Mark Bruener0100
Amos Zereoue23-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.83