Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.008
- 42.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.073
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.7%
- 42.9%Third-down rate42.2%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.94Points / drive1.71
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.086
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999
PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. PIT are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 24/46 | 294 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 20 | 129 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 9 | 13 | 131 | 1 |
| Brian Finneran | 6 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| Trevor Gaylor | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Quentin McCord | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 28/41 | 473 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 37 | 123 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 9 | 13 | 253 | 2 |
| Hines Ward | 11 | 16 | 139 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83