2022 · Week 13

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

19·16

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

43

Model margin

+0.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.002
  • 45.1%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.016EPA / dropback-0.001
  • +0.006EPA / rush+0.004
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.33CPOE-0.74
  • 43.5%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.97
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999

PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. ATL are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1ATL @ PIT13–20PIT
2024 · W1PIT @ ATL18–10PIT
2018 · W5ATL @ PIT17–41PIT
2014 · W15PIT @ ATL27–20PIT
2010 · W1ATL @ PIT9–15PIT
2006 · W7PIT @ ATL38–41ATL
2002 · W10ATL @ PIT34–34Tie
1999 · W7ATL @ PIT9–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–ATL
PITQ1 15:001552Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 7:33738Punt3–0
PITQ1 3:571158Field goal6–0
ATLQ2 13:34742Field goal6–3
PITQ2 9:15480Touchdown13–3
ATLQ2 7:06442Field goal13–6
PITQ2 5:05845Field goal16–6
ATLQ2 1:29521Punt16–6
PITQ2 0:2914End of half16–6
ATLQ3 15:00615Punt16–6
PITQ3 12:221371Field goal19–6
ATLQ3 4:46870Touchdown19–13
PITQ3 0:4332Punt19–13
ATLQ4 14:481678Field goal19–16
PITQ4 5:27940Punt19–16
ATLQ4 0:4210Turnover19–16
PITQ4 0:3500End of half19–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett16/2819710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris17865.10
Benny Snell6244.00
Steven Sims3196.30
Kenny Pickett7142.00
Jaylen Warren155.00
Gunner Olszewski221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth35760
Diontae Johnson511600
Jaylen Warren22140
Benny Snell11110
Zach Gentry1180
Najee Harris1160
George Pickens1220
Steven Sims0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota13/2416711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson11605.50
Tyler Allgeier10525.20
Marcus Mariota3175.70
Caleb Huntley4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London612950
Anthony Firkser22240
Parker Hesse11160
Olamide Zaccheaus25130
Damiere Byrd11120
MyCole Pruitt1171
KhaDarel Hodge0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.36