Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
43
Model margin
+0.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.002
- 45.1%Success rate45.4%
- +0.016EPA / dropback-0.001
- +0.006EPA / rush+0.004
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.33CPOE-0.74
- 43.5%Third-down rate41.9%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.65Points / drive1.97
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–1–1 since 1999
PIT have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. ATL are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 16/28 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13/24 | 167 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 11 | 60 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 12 | 95 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.36