1999 · Week 7 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
TB -8
Total
36.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.149
- 38.6%Success rate35.1%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.228EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- 37.0%Third-down rate35.3%
- 44.0%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.03Points / drive1.03
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 10:47 | 5 | 44 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 8:10 | 10 | 53 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 2:49 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 1:50 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 14:49 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TB | Q2 12:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 10:34 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TB | Q2 9:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 8:25 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TB | Q2 7:20 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q2 3:02 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–6 |
| TB | Q2 0:51 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 0–6 |
| TB | Q3 11:22 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q3 10:07 | 8 | 29 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| TB | Q3 6:52 | 7 | 30 | Missed field goal | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q3 3:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–6 |
| TB | Q3 1:53 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q3 0:07 | 11 | 42 | Missed field goal | 0–6 |
| TB | Q4 11:36 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q4 8:28 | 12 | 86 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| TB | Q4 2:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–6 |
| CHI | Q4 1:43 | 6 | 14 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| TB | Q4 0:45 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 10/22 | 117 | 0 | 1 |
| Cade McNown | 9/23 | 82 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 5 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 4 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 3 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| John Allred | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 16/27 | 121 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reidel Anthony | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Darnell McDonald | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.80
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.11