2018 · Week 4
Final
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
46
Model margin
+4.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.039
- 44.9%Success rate46.3%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.229EPA / rush-0.119
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- +3.11CPOE+2.41
- 46.7%Third-down rate41.4%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 1.93Points / drive1.96
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 16/20 | 145 | 1 | 2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 9/18 | 126 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 8 | 112 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 19/26 | 354 | 6 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 53 | 17.7 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 8 | 121 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 7 | 7 | 104 | 2 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 4 | 86 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Jordan Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.95
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.78
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.00