2018 · Week 4

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

10·48

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

46

Model margin

+4.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBears
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.039
  • 44.9%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.229EPA / rush-0.119
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +3.11CPOE+2.41
  • 46.7%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.96
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI
2011 · W7CHI @ TB24–18CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00675Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 12:2030Punt0–7
CHIQ1 10:493-12Punt0–7
TBQ1 9:18724Punt0–7
CHIQ1 5:45768Touchdown0–14
TBQ1 2:11560Field goal3–14
CHIQ2 14:55577Touchdown3–21
TBQ2 12:213-3Punt3–21
CHIQ2 10:45568Touchdown3–28
TBQ2 8:5933Punt3–28
CHIQ2 8:08670Touchdown3–35
TBQ2 4:56761Turnover3–35
CHIQ2 2:17954Field goal3–38
TBQ3 15:00727Turnover3–38
CHIQ3 11:05531Touchdown3–45
TBQ3 10:28727Punt3–45
CHIQ3 5:3037Punt3–45
TBQ3 4:041265Touchdown10–45
CHIQ4 13:301047Field goal10–48
TBQ4 6:23947Turnover10–48
CHIQ4 1:2200End of half10–48

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston16/2014512
Ryan Fitzpatrick9/1812601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones10292.90
Peyton Barber7243.40
Jameis Winston177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson581120
Mike Evans69590
Adam Humphries67360
Cameron Brate34291
Chris Godwin Jr.22220
Antony Auclair1180
Peyton Barber1260
O.J. Howard0300
Ronald Jones12-10

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky19/2635460

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tarik Cohen13534.10
Mitchell Trubisky35317.70
Jordan Howard11252.30
Taylor Gabriel11010.00
Benny Cunningham100.00
Chase Daniel2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tarik Cohen781211
Taylor Gabriel771042
Trey Burton24861
Allen Robinson24231
Josh Bellamy11201
Jordan Howard0100
Javon Wims0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.78
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.00