2014 · Week 12
Final
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
CHI -4
Total
47
Model margin
+1.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play-0.055
- 38.5%Success rate44.2%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.1%
- -1.50CPOE-0.14
- 36.6%Third-down rate38.4%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.33Points / drive1.62
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 25/48 | 341 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 5 | 9 | 117 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 6 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 11 | 47 | 1 |
| Bobby Rainey | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/27 | 130 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 23 | 89 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Marquess Wilson | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.93