2014 · Week 12

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh McCown

13·21

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CHI -4

Total

47

Model margin

+1.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBears
  • -0.111EPA / play-0.055
  • 38.5%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -1.50CPOE-0.14
  • 36.6%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.62
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2011 · W7CHI @ TB24–18CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00313Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:081239Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 6:51910Turnover0–0
TBQ1 1:39646Touchdown7–0
CHIQ2 13:2437Punt7–0
TBQ2 11:4536Punt7–0
CHIQ2 10:00724Missed field goal7–0
TBQ2 7:0133Punt7–0
CHIQ2 5:5738Punt7–0
TBQ2 4:48513Punt7–0
CHIQ2 2:2436Punt7–0
TBQ2 1:4811104Field goal10–0
CHIQ2 0:0400End of half10–0
TBQ3 15:0031Punt10–0
CHIQ3 14:01658Touchdown10–7
TBQ3 10:333-3Punt10–7
CHIQ3 8:5638Punt10–7
TBQ3 6:415-7Turnover10–13
CHIQ3 4:57113Touchdown10–14
TBQ3 4:5110Turnover10–14
CHIQ3 4:3849Touchdown10–21
TBQ3 3:02673Turnover10–21
CHIQ3 0:22419Punt10–21
TBQ4 13:28524Punt10–21
CHIQ4 11:12517Punt10–21
TBQ4 7:51751Field goal13–21
CHIQ4 4:5637Punt13–21
TBQ4 3:0449Turnover on downs13–21
CHIQ4 2:0035Punt13–21
TBQ4 0:1328End of half13–21

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown25/4834112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin11272.50
Charles Sims6223.70
Josh McCown3124.00
Bobby Rainey133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson591170
Louis Murphy681130
Mike Evans311471
Bobby Rainey46180
Austin Seferian-Jenkins24160
Charles Sims24110
Brandon Myers1190
Luke Stocker1260
Doug Martin1340

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler17/2713010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte23893.92
Ka'Deem Carey331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martellus Bennett47370
Brandon Marshall35320
Matt Forte56230
Alshon Jeffery34221
Marquess Wilson13100
Dante Rosario1160
Ka'Deem Carey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.93