2017 · Week 2
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -7
Total
44
Model margin
+2.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play+0.004
- 38.5%Success rate44.2%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.167
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.5%
- -3.10CPOE+3.38
- 34.8%Third-down rate42.9%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.22Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 31/45 | 301 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 9 | 7 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 7 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 4 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 8 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Tanner Gentry | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/30 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Peyton Barber | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 9 | 93 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.52
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.44