2020 · Week 5

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

19·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Nick Foles

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

-5.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBears
  • +0.149EPA / play-0.016
  • 46.9%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.073
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +3.10CPOE+1.28
  • 44.2%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.68Points / drive1.97
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI
2011 · W7CHI @ TB24–18CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CHI
TBQ1 15:001164Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 9:48520Punt3–0
TBQ1 7:0734Punt3–0
CHIQ1 5:39439Turnover3–0
TBQ1 3:27552Touchdown10–0
CHIQ1 0:56514Punt10–0
TBQ2 13:591352Field goal13–0
CHIQ2 7:031070Touchdown13–7
TBQ2 1:4831Turnover13–7
CHIQ2 1:31427Touchdown13–14
TBQ2 0:36314End of half13–14
CHIQ3 15:00412Punt13–14
TBQ3 12:15550Field goal16–14
CHIQ3 9:043-8Punt16–14
TBQ3 7:16933Punt16–14
CHIQ3 2:471245Field goal16–17
TBQ4 10:341056Field goal19–17
CHIQ4 4:496-7Punt19–17
TBQ4 2:483-2Punt19–17
CHIQ4 2:21832Field goal19–20
TBQ4 1:13516Turnover on downs19–20
CHIQ4 0:3300End of half19–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/4125310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones171066.20
Tom Brady300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Johnson46610
Rob Gronkowski36520
Cameron Brate56440
Mike Evans59411
Jaydon Mickens22220
Ronald Jones35190
Tanner Hudson1490
Ke'Shawn Vaughn2350

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles30/4224311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery10292.91
Cordarrelle Patterson372.30
Nick Foles1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson1016900
Cordarrelle Patterson33380
Jimmy Graham35331
David Montgomery78300
Anthony Miller44280
Darnell Mooney25150
Demetrius Harris1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.2%3.3%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

34.0%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.54
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.74