2020 · Week 5
Final
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
-5.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.016
- 46.9%Success rate44.0%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.073
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- +3.10CPOE+1.28
- 44.2%Third-down rate34.8%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.68Points / drive1.97
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/41 | 253 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 17 | 106 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Johnson | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 9 | 41 | 1 |
| Jaydon Mickens | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 30/42 | 243 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 10 | 16 | 90 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 7 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.0%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.54
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.74