2023 · Week 2

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

17·27

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+2.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.052EPA / play+0.008
  • 41.6%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.045EPA / rush-0.166
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.01CPOE+0.25
  • 41.7%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.86
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI
2011 · W7CHI @ TB24–18CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–TB
TBQ1 15:001277Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 9:03675Touchdown7–3
TBQ1 6:171058Missed field goal7–3
CHIQ2 14:493-14Punt7–3
TBQ2 13:15477Touchdown7–10
CHIQ2 10:5332Punt7–10
TBQ2 9:19418Punt7–10
CHIQ2 6:49951Field goal10–10
TBQ2 1:551162Field goal10–13
CHIQ3 15:00612Punt10–13
TBQ3 11:311384Touchdown10–20
CHIQ3 4:06921Punt10–20
TBQ3 0:3239Punt10–20
CHIQ4 13:3430Punt10–20
TBQ4 12:31417Punt10–20
CHIQ4 10:10898Touchdown17–20
TBQ4 6:17837Punt17–20
CHIQ4 2:2420Opp touchdown17–27
CHIQ4 2:033-9Turnover17–27
TBQ4 1:0700End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields16/2921112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert7355.00
Roschon Johnson4328.00
Justin Fields430.81
Velus Jones Jr.1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore671040
Cole Kmet46380
Chase Claypool38361
Khalil Herbert13230
Roschon Johnson22100
Robert Tonyan0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield26/3431710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White17734.31
Baker Mayfield6172.80
Chase Edmonds2126.00
Deven Thompkins11111.00
Sean Tucker870.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans681711
Chris Godwin Jr.58580
Cade Otton66410
Rachaad White55300
Trey Palmer12200
Rakim Jarrett1170
David Wells22-100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.08