2023 · Week 2
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play+0.008
- 41.6%Success rate40.5%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.045EPA / rush-0.166
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.01CPOE+0.25
- 41.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.72Points / drive1.86
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 16/29 | 211 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 7 | 104 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 8 | 36 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 26/34 | 317 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 8 | 7 | 0.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 8 | 171 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| David Wells | 2 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.08