2016 · Week 10

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

10·36

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CHI -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+5.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.005
  • 44.1%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.208
  • 10.0%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -0.10CPOE+1.81
  • 37.8%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.74
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI
2011 · W7CHI @ TB24–18CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–TB
CHIQ1 15:00737Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:2139Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:17423Turnover0–0
TBQ1 7:06417Punt0–6
CHIQ1 5:4210Opp touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 5:34528Field goal3–7
TBQ1 2:4244Turnover3–7
CHIQ1 1:28614Turnover3–7
TBQ2 13:421364Punt3–7
CHIQ2 6:27325Turnover3–7
TBQ2 5:37429Touchdown3–14
CHIQ2 3:3335Punt3–14
TBQ2 1:45741Field goal3–17
CHIQ2 0:31483Touchdown10–17
TBQ3 15:00482Touchdown10–24
CHIQ3 13:053-5Punt10–24
TBQ3 11:171147Field goal10–27
CHIQ3 5:1942Punt10–27
TBQ3 3:5636Punt10–27
CHIQ3 1:463-2Safety10–29
TBQ3 0:511953Touchdown10–36
CHIQ4 5:5537Punt10–36
TBQ4 4:3138Punt10–36
CHIQ4 2:361066End of half10–36

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler16/3018212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard151006.70
Jeremy Langford2168.00
Jay Cutler177.00
Ka'Deem Carey2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Meredith12501
Alshon Jeffery49470
Zach Miller47320
Eddie Royal12240
Ka'Deem Carey11160
Jeremy Langford45100
Logan Paulsen0100
Josh Bellamy0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston23/3331221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber12383.20
Doug Martin16332.11
Mike James273.50
Adam Humphries122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Brate77841
Mike Evans45660
Adam Humphries58460
Freddie Martino11431
Cecil Shorts25380
Doug Martin12130
Luke Stocker12110
Brandon Myers1160
Mike James1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.85
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.24