2016 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+5.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play-0.005
- 44.1%Success rate43.9%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.208
- 10.0%Explosive rate6.6%
- -0.10CPOE+1.81
- 37.8%Third-down rate44.2%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 1.41Points / drive1.74
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 16/30 | 182 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 15 | 100 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Meredith | 1 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 23/33 | 312 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 16 | 33 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Mike James | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | 7 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 1 | 1 | 43 | 1 |
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike James | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.85
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.24