2021 · Week 7

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

3·38

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TB -12.5

Total

47

Model margin

+7.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.087EPA / play+0.143
  • 41.4%Success rate49.9%
  • -0.077EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.105EPA / rush+0.024
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -2.87CPOE+1.50
  • 34.7%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.62Points / drive2.51
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI
2011 · W7CHI @ TB24–18CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–TB
CHIQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:49317Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 11:58431Punt0–7
TBQ1 9:4730Punt0–7
CHIQ1 8:1035Turnover0–7
TBQ1 7:13640Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 4:37510Turnover0–14
TBQ1 2:07535Touchdown0–21
CHIQ1 0:0638Punt0–21
TBQ2 14:08513Punt0–21
CHIQ2 12:24411Turnover0–21
TBQ2 10:1830Missed field goal0–21
CHIQ2 10:01957Field goal3–21
TBQ2 6:08575Touchdown3–28
CHIQ2 3:35625Turnover on downs3–28
TBQ2 1:541143Touchdown3–35
CHIQ2 0:0918End of half3–35
TBQ3 15:00637Punt3–35
CHIQ3 12:00965Turnover3–35
TBQ3 7:271373Turnover3–35
CHIQ3 0:192-1Turnover3–35
TBQ4 14:53533Field goal3–38
CHIQ4 12:51731Punt3–38
TBQ4 7:58842Punt3–38
CHIQ4 2:271061End of half3–38

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields22/3218403

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert181005.60
Justin Fields8384.80
Damien Williams351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet56430
Darnell Mooney25390
Khalil Herbert55330
Jesse James33200
Marquise Goodwin24160
Allen Robinson24160
Damiere Byrd11100
Ryan Nall1140
Damien Williams1130
Jesper Horsted0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/3621140
Blaine Gabbert2/31500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette15815.41
Ronald Jones10636.30
Ke'Shawn Vaughn5275.40
Jaelon Darden11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.8111111
Mike Evans610763
Tyler Johnson22160
Leonard Fournette2490
O.J. Howard1390
Giovani Bernard2350
Cameron Brate0400
Deon Yelder1100
Jaelon Darden0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+7.19