2021 · Week 7
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -12.5
Total
47
Model margin
+7.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.087EPA / play+0.143
- 41.4%Success rate49.9%
- -0.077EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.105EPA / rush+0.024
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- -2.87CPOE+1.50
- 34.7%Third-down rate48.0%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.62Points / drive2.51
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 22/32 | 184 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 18 | 100 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ryan Nall | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jesper Horsted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/36 | 211 | 4 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2/3 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 10 | 63 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 8 | 11 | 111 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 10 | 76 | 3 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Deon Yelder | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+7.19