2015 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.008
- 42.8%Success rate44.4%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.141
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.51CPOE-0.02
- 42.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.74Points / drive1.77
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 20/27 | 156 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 7 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 5 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeremy Langford | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 15/29 | 295 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Sims | 3 | 5 | 72 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 4 | 60 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Donteea Dye | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.36