2015 · Week 16

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

26·21

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

44

Model margin

+3.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.008
  • 42.8%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.141
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.51CPOE-0.02
  • 42.3%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.77
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI
2011 · W7CHI @ TB24–18CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–TB
CHIQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:53622Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:2939Punt0–6
TBQ1 6:3414Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 6:27839Punt0–7
CHIQ1 2:2900Punt0–7
TBQ1 2:21734Punt0–7
CHIQ2 14:49841Touchdown7–7
TBQ2 11:35535Turnover7–7
CHIQ2 9:301147Field goal10–7
TBQ2 3:003-4Punt10–7
CHIQ2 1:48645Field goal13–7
TBQ2 0:0800End of half13–7
TBQ3 15:00678Touchdown13–14
CHIQ3 11:2439Punt13–14
TBQ3 9:14974Turnover13–14
CHIQ3 4:4339Punt13–14
TBQ3 2:4210Turnover13–14
CHIQ3 2:35523Touchdown20–14
TBQ4 14:55411Punt20–14
CHIQ4 13:22940Field goal23–14
TBQ4 9:04756Missed field goal23–14
CHIQ4 6:281047Field goal26–14
TBQ4 1:07580Touchdown26–21
CHIQ4 0:0100End of half26–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler20/2715610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Langford19834.40
Matt Forte11544.90
Jay Cutler22110.50
Ka'Deem Carey7162.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller78690
Marc Mariani23320
Matt Forte34230
Eddie Royal56210
Josh Bellamy23100
Ka'Deem Carey1111
Jeremy Langford0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston15/2929521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin17492.91
Charles Sims44511.30
Jameis Winston4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Sims35721
Mike Evans48610
Austin Seferian-Jenkins24601
Cameron Brate11460
Russell Shepard11180
Donteea Dye13150
Adam Humphries12100
Luke Stocker1170
Doug Martin1360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.36