1999 · Week 7

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Akili Smith

10·31

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -11

Total

44

Model margin

+6.6est.

IND perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapColts
  • -0.068EPA / play+0.072
  • 39.4%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.106
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 39.2%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 43.1%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.88
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.036

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14IND @ CIN14–34CIN
2020 · W6CIN @ IND27–31IND
2018 · W1CIN @ IND34–23CIN
2017 · W8IND @ CIN23–24CIN
2014 · playoffsCIN @ IND10–26IND
2014 · W7CIN @ IND0–27IND
2013 · W14IND @ CIN28–42CIN
2011 · W6IND @ CIN17–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–IND
CINQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:05364Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 11:32625Punt0–7
INDQ1 8:3459Punt0–7
CINQ1 5:5434Punt0–7
INDQ1 4:0430Punt0–7
CINQ1 3:424-6Turnover on downs0–7
INDQ1 1:55641Turnover0–7
CINQ2 14:5333Punt0–7
INDQ2 13:58828Touchdown0–14
INDQ2 9:3300Touchdown0–14
CINQ2 9:33412Punt0–14
INDQ2 7:17625Touchdown0–21
CINQ2 4:413-10Punt0–21
INDQ2 3:38433Field goal0–24
CINQ2 1:53858Field goal3–24
INDQ2 0:1500End of half3–24
INDQ3 15:00643Missed field goal3–24
CINQ3 11:5434Punt3–24
INDQ3 11:02417Punt3–24
CINQ3 8:58417Punt3–24
INDQ3 6:3838Punt3–24
CINQ3 5:051054Turnover on downs3–24
INDQ3 0:181255Touchdown3–31
CINQ4 9:171068Touchdown10–31
INDQ4 5:13613Punt10–31
CINQ4 1:44316End of half10–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Akili Smith12/2412200
Jeff Blake5/75210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Akili Smith44210.50
Michael Basnight11262.40
Nicolas Luchey4184.50
Jeff Blake11212.00
Corey Dillon671.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnay Scott56491
Carl Pickens38460
Willie Jackson26270
Nicolas Luchey22210
Marco Battaglia22150
Damon Griffin1170
Corey Dillon1260
Tony McGee0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning17/3328421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James26522.02
Peyton Manning252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison8161561
Terrence Wilkins34540
Edgerrin James14330
Ken Dilger35251
Marcus Pollard22160
E.G. Green0100
Paul Shields0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.4%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.47
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.59