Closing spread
IND -11
Total
44
Model margin
+6.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play+0.072
- 39.4%Success rate41.4%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- 39.2%Third-down rate39.4%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.24Points / drive1.88
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.036
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 12/24 | 122 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 5/7 | 52 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 5 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Carl Pickens | 3 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 17/33 | 284 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 52 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 8 | 16 | 156 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| E.G. Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Shields | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.59