2023 · Week 14

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

14·34

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jake Browning

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

45

Model margin

+2.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBengals
  • -0.025EPA / play+0.001
  • 41.5%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.103
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -3.92CPOE+2.09
  • 34.4%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.91
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. CIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W6CIN @ IND27–31IND
2018 · W1CIN @ IND34–23CIN
2017 · W8IND @ CIN23–24CIN
2014 · playoffsCIN @ IND10–26IND
2014 · W7CIN @ IND0–27IND
2013 · W14IND @ CIN28–42CIN
2011 · W6IND @ CIN17–27CIN
2010 · W10CIN @ IND17–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CIN
INDQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:1939Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:18525Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:42492Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 6:311055Missed field goal0–7
CINQ1 1:151261Touchdown0–14
INDQ2 10:181769Touchdown6–14
CINQ2 1:5626Opp touchdown14–14
CINQ2 1:3155Punt14–14
INDQ2 0:1110End of half14–14
CINQ3 15:00675Touchdown14–21
INDQ3 11:38513Punt14–21
CINQ3 9:321171Touchdown14–28
INDQ3 2:5934Punt14–28
CINQ3 1:14532Punt14–28
CINQ4 13:3248Field goal14–31
INDQ4 11:14765Turnover14–31
CINQ4 9:2338Punt14–31
INDQ4 7:36827Turnover on downs14–31
CINQ4 5:11518Field goal14–34
INDQ4 1:55313End of half14–34

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew26/3924011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss13282.20
Trey Sermon3134.30
Gardner Minshew252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman811950
Will Mallory55460
Josh Downs33320
Zack Moss48280
Alec Pierce23220
Kylen Granson24170
Mo Alie-Cox1121
Andrew Ogletree0200
Tyler Goodson11-20

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Browning18/2427521
AJ McCarron1/1-100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon21793.81
Chase Brown8253.10
Jake Browning372.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chase Brown33801
Tee Higgins24720
Joe Mixon34460
Ja'Marr Chase34290
Tyler Boyd23230
Tanner Hudson23211
Drew Sample2240
Mitchell Wilcox1100
Trayveon Williams11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.28
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.81