Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
45
Model margin
+2.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.001
- 41.5%Success rate44.4%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.103
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- -3.92CPOE+2.09
- 34.4%Third-down rate38.3%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.78Points / drive1.91
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. CIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 26/39 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 18/24 | 275 | 2 | 1 |
| AJ McCarron | 1/1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 80 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 4 | 72 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.28
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.81