2013 · Week 14

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

28·42

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 25°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -7

Total

43

Model margin

+4.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBengals
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.031
  • 44.6%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.108EPA / dropback+0.109
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.087
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.44CPOE+1.24
  • 37.8%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.76
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. CIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14IND @ CIN14–34CIN
2020 · W6CIN @ IND27–31IND
2018 · W1CIN @ IND34–23CIN
2017 · W8IND @ CIN23–24CIN
2014 · playoffsCIN @ IND10–26IND
2014 · W7CIN @ IND0–27IND
2011 · W6IND @ CIN17–27CIN
2010 · W10CIN @ IND17–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CIN
INDQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:251083Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 8:03510Punt0–7
CINQ1 6:5837Punt0–7
INDQ1 5:2232Punt0–7
CINQ1 3:46616Punt0–7
INDQ1 1:21523Punt0–7
CINQ2 14:07855Punt0–7
INDQ2 9:49957Missed field goal0–7
CINQ2 5:00961Touchdown0–14
INDQ2 1:06419Punt0–14
CINQ2 0:2000End of half0–14
CINQ3 15:001177Touchdown0–21
INDQ3 10:41374Touchdown7–21
CINQ3 9:57412Punt7–21
INDQ3 7:22348Touchdown14–21
CINQ3 6:20741Touchdown14–28
INDQ3 3:0534Punt14–28
CINQ3 1:50744Touchdown14–35
INDQ4 13:25970Touchdown21–35
CINQ4 9:4833Punt21–35
INDQ4 8:0734Punt21–35
CINQ4 7:18634Touchdown21–42
INDQ4 4:031072Touchdown28–42
CINQ4 1:2000End of half28–42

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck29/4632640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andrew Luck23216.00
Trent Richardson6203.30
Donald Brown4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Da'Rick Rogers691072
Trent Richardson56680
LaVon Brazill34532
Coby Fleener59310
Darrius Heyward-Bey23230
Donald Brown46180
Weslye Saunders12110
Jack Doyle1180
T.Y. Hilton2570
Chris Rainey0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton24/3527530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard12998.30
BenJarvus Green-Ellis17482.82
Andy Dalton5112.21
Marvin Jones1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green68721
Marvin Jones34601
Giovani Bernard44490
Jermaine Gresham55411
Mohamed Sanu24260
Tyler Eifert34200
Andrew Hawkins1270
Alex Smith0100
BenJarvus Green-Ellis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.12