Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
43
Model margin
+4.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.031
- 44.6%Success rate43.4%
- +0.108EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.087
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.44CPOE+1.24
- 37.8%Third-down rate41.9%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
- 1.89Points / drive1.76
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. CIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 29/46 | 326 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da'Rick Rogers | 6 | 9 | 107 | 2 |
| Trent Richardson | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 3 | 4 | 53 | 2 |
| Coby Fleener | 5 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 24/35 | 275 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 12 | 99 | 8.3 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 4 | 60 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12