2014 · Week 7

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

0·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapColts
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.029
  • 42.0%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.020EPA / rush-0.221
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +0.60CPOE+1.10
  • 39.7%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.01
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14IND @ CIN14–34CIN
2020 · W6CIN @ IND27–31IND
2018 · W1CIN @ IND34–23CIN
2017 · W8IND @ CIN23–24CIN
2014 · playoffsCIN @ IND10–26IND
2013 · W14IND @ CIN28–42CIN
2011 · W6IND @ CIN17–27CIN
2010 · W10CIN @ IND17–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–IND
INDQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
CINQ1 14:0430Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:53834Punt0–0
CINQ1 9:4837Punt0–0
INDQ1 8:31554Turnover0–0
CINQ1 6:0639Punt0–0
INDQ1 4:491063Field goal0–3
CINQ1 0:3333Punt0–3
INDQ2 14:53568Touchdown0–10
CINQ2 12:0830Punt0–10
INDQ2 10:40539Turnover0–10
CINQ2 8:143-3Punt0–10
INDQ2 7:1236Punt0–10
CINQ2 5:3432Punt0–10
INDQ2 4:113-3Punt0–10
CINQ2 2:3133Punt0–10
INDQ2 1:4838Punt0–10
CINQ2 0:5956End of half0–10
CINQ3 15:0039Punt0–10
INDQ3 13:41885Touchdown0–17
CINQ3 9:47422Punt0–17
INDQ3 8:0135Punt0–17
CINQ3 6:383-11Punt0–17
INDQ3 5:001385Touchdown0–24
CINQ4 12:09960Turnover on downs0–24
INDQ4 8:301063Field goal0–27
CINQ4 1:55828End of half0–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton18/3812600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard7172.40
Jeremy Hill4153.80
Andy Dalton100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Sanu39540
Jermaine Gresham1012480
Greg Little12130
Brandon Tate1270
Cedric Peerman1150
Dane Sanzenbacher0200
James Wright0200
Jeremy Hill0100
Giovani Bernard25-10

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck27/4234420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson14775.50
Ahmad Bradshaw10525.21
Dan Herron5377.40
Andrew Luck451.30
Donte Moncrief100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton791070
Coby Fleener45640
Dwayne Allen36521
Trent Richardson45410
Ahmad Bradshaw33361
Jack Doyle11200
Reggie Wayne48150
Donte Moncrief1290
Hakeem Nicks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.55