Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.059
- 43.6%Success rate48.0%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.097
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.54CPOE+0.63
- 36.9%Third-down rate50.5%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.95Points / drive2.25
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/28 | 243 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 17 | 95 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 8 | 92 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 39/53 | 319 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wilkins | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 7 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 8 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 11 | 46 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 7 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.27
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.01