2018 · Week 1

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

34·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapColts
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.059
  • 43.6%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.097
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -3.54CPOE+0.63
  • 36.9%Third-down rate50.5%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.95Points / drive2.25
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14IND @ CIN14–34CIN
2020 · W6CIN @ IND27–31IND
2017 · W8IND @ CIN23–24CIN
2014 · playoffsCIN @ IND10–26IND
2014 · W7CIN @ IND0–27IND
2013 · W14IND @ CIN28–42CIN
2011 · W6IND @ CIN17–27CIN
2010 · W10CIN @ IND17–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–IND
CINQ1 15:0027Turnover0–0
INDQ1 14:0133Turnover0–0
CINQ1 13:10969Field goal3–0
INDQ1 8:201363Field goal3–3
CINQ1 1:23330Turnover3–3
INDQ1 0:04868Touchdown3–10
CINQ2 12:02417Punt3–10
INDQ2 9:241268Field goal3–13
CINQ2 3:01639Touchdown10–13
INDQ2 1:44828Field goal10–16
CINQ2 0:0200End of half10–16
INDQ3 15:003-8Punt10–16
CINQ3 13:323-3Punt10–16
INDQ3 11:30960Touchdown10–23
CINQ3 8:13875Touchdown17–23
INDQ3 4:09923Missed field goal17–23
CINQ3 0:121030Touchdown24–23
INDQ4 11:0738Punt24–23
CINQ4 9:531166Field goal27–23
INDQ4 3:571358Opp touchdown34–23
INDQ4 0:2419End of half34–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/2824321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon17955.61
Andy Dalton284.00
Giovani Bernard1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green68921
Joe Mixon57540
Tyler Eifert33440
Tyler Boyd35260
Giovani Bernard11110
Tyler Kroft1190
C.J. Uzomah1140
John Ross1231

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck39/5331921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Wilkins14402.90
Nyheim Hines5193.80
Christine Michael294.50
Andrew Luck177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jack Doyle710600
Ryan Grant89590
Eric Ebron45511
T.Y. Hilton511461
Nyheim Hines79330
Jordan Wilkins33210
Chester Rogers33180
Zach Pascal11180
Erik Swoope11130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.01