Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.029
- 42.0%Success rate45.9%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.020EPA / rush-0.221
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- +0.60CPOE+1.10
- 39.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.86Points / drive2.01
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/35 | 155 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 31/44 | 376 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Herron | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 14 | 103 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 10 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.31