2014 · WC

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

10·26

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapColts
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.029
  • 42.0%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.020EPA / rush-0.221
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +0.60CPOE+1.10
  • 39.7%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.01
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14IND @ CIN14–34CIN
2020 · W6CIN @ IND27–31IND
2018 · W1CIN @ IND34–23CIN
2017 · W8IND @ CIN23–24CIN
2014 · W7CIN @ IND0–27IND
2013 · W14IND @ CIN28–42CIN
2011 · W6IND @ CIN17–27CIN
2010 · W10CIN @ IND17–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–IND
INDQ1 15:00966Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 11:05741Punt0–7
INDQ1 6:5237Punt0–7
CINQ1 5:54974Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 1:281081Field goal7–10
CINQ2 12:4135Punt7–10
INDQ2 10:51553Field goal7–13
CINQ2 8:34521Punt7–13
INDQ2 5:07756Turnover7–13
CINQ2 1:49715Field goal10–13
INDQ2 0:1000End of half10–13
CINQ3 15:0033Punt10–13
INDQ3 13:57527Punt10–13
CINQ3 11:2435Punt10–13
INDQ3 9:54661Touchdown10–20
CINQ3 7:48414Punt10–20
INDQ3 6:181058Field goal10–23
CINQ3 1:313-3Punt10–23
INDQ4 14:50512Field goal10–26
CINQ4 11:31411Punt10–26
INDQ4 9:37954Punt10–26
CINQ4 4:25634Turnover10–26
INDQ4 2:4737Punt10–26
CINQ4 0:59634End of half10–26

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton18/3515500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill13473.61
Andy Dalton4348.50
Rex Burkhead12323.00
Giovani Bernard362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Giovani Bernard89460
Ryan Hewitt35370
Rex Burkhead33340
Mohamed Sanu37310
Kevin Brock1270
Brandon Tate0500
Greg Little0100
Cobi Hamilton0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck31/4437610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dan Herron12564.71
Zurlon Tipton11403.60
Andrew Luck2189.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton6141030
Dan Herron1011850
Hakeem Nicks33590
Donte Moncrief33541
Dwayne Allen33300
Coby Fleener12180
Reggie Wayne12120
Jack Doyle3390
Zurlon Tipton1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.31