Closing spread
CIN -11
Total
44
Model margin
+2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.088
- 38.7%Success rate39.2%
- -0.102EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.150
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- -4.56CPOE-1.89
- 38.0%Third-down rate34.7%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.22Points / drive1.49
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. CIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 25/39 | 233 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 12 | 14 | 121 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 17/29 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 11 | 18 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 91 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 8 | 27 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| John Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.31