2017 · Week 8

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

23·24

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CIN -11

Total

44

Model margin

+2.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

1.4%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBengals
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.088
  • 38.7%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.150
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -4.56CPOE-1.89
  • 38.0%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.49
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. CIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14IND @ CIN14–34CIN
2020 · W6CIN @ IND27–31IND
2018 · W1CIN @ IND34–23CIN
2014 · playoffsCIN @ IND10–26IND
2014 · W7CIN @ IND0–27IND
2013 · W14IND @ CIN28–42CIN
2011 · W6IND @ CIN17–27CIN
2010 · W10CIN @ IND17–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CIN
INDQ1 15:00835Punt0–0
CINQ1 9:40838Field goal0–3
INDQ1 5:413-2Punt0–3
CINQ1 4:11530Missed field goal0–3
INDQ1 1:36619Punt0–3
INDQ2 14:42616Field goal3–3
CINQ2 12:0230Punt3–3
INDQ2 11:37748Touchdown10–3
CINQ2 8:14796Touchdown10–10
INDQ2 4:36411Punt10–10
CINQ2 2:47514Punt10–10
INDQ2 1:13750Field goal13–10
CINQ3 15:001272Touchdown13–17
INDQ3 9:101388Touchdown20–17
CINQ3 2:10312Turnover20–17
INDQ3 1:00826Field goal23–17
CINQ4 11:21710Punt23–17
INDQ4 7:4024Opp touchdown23–24
INDQ4 6:5838Punt23–24
CINQ4 5:1946Punt23–24
INDQ4 2:42728Turnover on downs23–24
CINQ4 1:1800End of half23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett25/3923321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore16825.10
Marlon Mack11272.50
Jacoby Brissett166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jack Doyle12141211
Marlon Mack35361
Kamar Aiken25330
Frank Gore44190
T.Y. Hilton27150
Chester Rogers2290
Donte Moncrief0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton17/2924320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon11181.60
Alex Erickson11414.00
Jeremy Hill4112.80
Andy Dalton3103.30
Giovani Bernard252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Mixon33910
Tyler Kroft56460
Brandon LaFell45440
Josh Malone23351
A.J. Green38271
Giovani Bernard0200
John Ross0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +117.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.31