Closing spread
CIN -5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.030
- 39.3%Success rate41.7%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.080
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.4%
- -4.66CPOE-2.19
- 34.4%Third-down rate35.5%
- 47.1%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.05Points / drive1.55
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. CIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Painter | 23/34 | 188 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delone Carter | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Curtis Painter | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 6 | 7 | 53 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 8 | 11 | 52 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 25/32 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Bernard Scott | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 6 | 9 | 101 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.54