2011 · Week 6

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Curtis Painter

17·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

CIN -5

Total

40

Model margin

+3.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBengals
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.030
  • 39.3%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.096EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.182EPA / rush-0.080
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -4.66CPOE-2.19
  • 34.4%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 47.1%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.05Points / drive1.55
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. CIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14IND @ CIN14–34CIN
2020 · W6CIN @ IND27–31IND
2018 · W1CIN @ IND34–23CIN
2017 · W8IND @ CIN23–24CIN
2014 · playoffsCIN @ IND10–26IND
2014 · W7CIN @ IND0–27IND
2013 · W14IND @ CIN28–42CIN
2010 · W10CIN @ IND17–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CIN
CINQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:53318Turnover0–0
CINQ1 11:35644Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 9:191148Punt0–7
CINQ1 2:39410Punt0–7
INDQ1 0:22866Touchdown7–7
CINQ2 11:14835Punt7–7
INDQ2 7:2733Punt7–7
CINQ2 5:561282Field goal7–10
INDQ3 15:0036Punt7–10
CINQ3 13:26746Touchdown7–17
INDQ3 10:2734Punt7–17
CINQ3 8:201066Field goal7–20
INDQ3 2:20852Field goal10–20
CINQ4 14:5637Punt10–20
INDQ4 13:471148Touchdown17–20
CINQ4 9:33416Punt17–20
INDQ4 7:36726Missed field goal17–20
CINQ4 5:38632Missed field goal17–26
INDQ4 2:3612Opp touchdown17–27
INDQ4 2:2210Turnover17–27
CINQ4 2:06213End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Curtis Painter23/3418811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Delone Carter14453.20
Donald Brown5357.01
Curtis Painter4143.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne56580
Dallas Clark67531
Pierre Garcon811520
Donald Brown22160
Austin Collie1680
Jacob Tamme1110
Delone Carter0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton25/3226410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson16573.61
Bernard Scott11292.60
Brian Leonard294.50
Andy Dalton2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Simpson691010
A.J. Green57511
Brian Leonard22380
Andre Caldwell44320
Jermaine Gresham46230
Andrew Hawkins1170
Cedric Benson1150
Bernard Scott1150
Donald Lee1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.54