2020 · Week 6

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

27·31

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+5.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapColts
  • -0.041EPA / play+0.083
  • 44.2%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.122EPA / rush-0.048
  • 6.5%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +0.03CPOE-0.03
  • 37.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.35
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14IND @ CIN14–34CIN
2018 · W1CIN @ IND34–23CIN
2017 · W8IND @ CIN23–24CIN
2014 · playoffsCIN @ IND10–26IND
2014 · W7CIN @ IND0–27IND
2013 · W14IND @ CIN28–42CIN
2011 · W6IND @ CIN17–27CIN
2010 · W10CIN @ IND17–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–IND
INDQ1 15:00220Turnover0–0
CINQ1 14:05743Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 11:1739Punt7–0
CINQ1 9:171278Touchdown14–0
INDQ1 3:1837Punt14–0
CINQ1 1:45480Touchdown21–0
INDQ2 14:56787Touchdown21–7
CINQ2 12:18826Field goal24–7
INDQ2 8:041080Touchdown24–14
CINQ2 4:3834Punt24–14
INDQ2 2:581082Touchdown24–21
CINQ2 0:1500End of half24–21
CINQ3 15:0039Punt24–21
INDQ3 13:28931Punt24–21
CINQ3 9:351267Field goal27–21
INDQ3 3:32775Touchdown27–28
CINQ4 14:553-5Punt27–28
INDQ4 12:5320Turnover27–28
CINQ4 12:441058Missed field goal27–28
INDQ4 8:02940Field goal27–31
CINQ4 4:031039Turnover27–31
INDQ4 0:3900End of half27–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow25/3931301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon18543.01
Tyler Boyd12525.00
Giovani Bernard8151.91
Tee Higgins122.00
Joe Burrow320.71
Samaje Perine100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins681250
A.J. Green811960
Tyler Boyd58540
Joe Mixon23150
Giovani Bernard33130
Mike Thomas13100
Alex Erickson0100
Cethan Carter0100
Drew Sample0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers29/4437131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor12605.00
Trey Burton111.01
Philip Rivers1-1-1.00
Jordan Wilkins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Johnson581080
Trey Burton45581
Jonathan Taylor44550
Zach Pascal47541
Jack Doyle33291
De'Michael Harris33290
Nyheim Hines56270
T.Y. Hilton15110
Jordan Wilkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.86