Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.083
- 44.2%Success rate46.8%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.122EPA / rush-0.048
- 6.5%Explosive rate11.3%
- +0.03CPOE-0.03
- 37.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.87Points / drive2.35
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/39 | 313 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 18 | 54 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 8 | 125 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 8 | 11 | 96 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cethan Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 29/44 | 371 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johnson | 5 | 8 | 108 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 4 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 4 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| De'Michael Harris | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.86