Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.035EPA / play-0.107
- 40.6%Success rate37.4%
- +0.016EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.179
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- 36.1%Third-down rate35.1%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.38Points / drive1.19
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.063EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 25/38 | 316 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 19 | 90 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 1 |
| John Avery | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 5 | 8 | 111 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Andre Cooper | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| John Avery | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 13/22 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 17 | 106 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 2 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Vincent Brisby | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30