1999 · Week 7

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

23·24

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

Foxboro Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 25mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapPatriots
  • -0.035EPA / play-0.107
  • 40.6%Success rate37.4%
  • +0.016EPA / dropback-0.062
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.179
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.19
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.063EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NE
NEQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:4239Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:29659Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 7:273-7Punt0–7
NEQ1 6:00534Field goal0–10
DENQ1 2:371382Field goal3–10
NEQ2 11:1132Punt3–10
DENQ2 8:50388Touchdown10–10
NEQ2 7:52416Punt10–10
DENQ2 5:3930Punt10–10
NEQ2 3:5536Punt10–10
DENQ2 2:5630Punt10–10
NEQ2 1:40466Touchdown10–17
DENQ2 0:26426End of half10–17
DENQ3 15:00662Field goal13–17
NEQ3 11:33669Touchdown13–24
DENQ3 8:2538Punt13–24
NEQ3 6:4738Punt13–24
DENQ3 5:161464Touchdown20–24
NEQ4 14:15620Punt20–24
DENQ4 10:351174Field goal23–24
NEQ4 6:10626Punt23–24
DENQ4 3:15836Missed field goal23–24
NEQ4 1:3700End of half23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese25/3831610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Olandis Gary19904.70
Brian Griese3237.71
John Avery2136.50
Howard Griffith273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ed McCaffrey581110
Byron Chamberlain46460
Rod Smith38441
Olandis Gary44390
Andre Cooper22210
John Avery34130
Billy Miller11110
Howard Griffith0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe13/2221400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen171066.22
Kevin Faulk5244.81
Tony Carter166.00
Lamont Warren2-1-0.50
Drew Bledsoe3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Glenn24800
Ben Coates36400
Tony Carter22310
Vincent Brisby11270
Lamont Warren24210
Shawn Jefferson22110
Kevin Faulk1140
Terry Allen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.30