2015 · CON

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

18·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.089EPA / play-0.070
  • 44.0%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.32CPOE-1.92
  • 41.0%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.47
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE
2013 · playoffsNE @ DEN16–26DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DEN
NEQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:021269Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 7:3237Punt0–7
DENQ1 6:4034Punt0–7
NEQ1 5:0539Punt0–7
DENQ1 3:0822Turnover0–7
NEQ1 2:23221Touchdown6–7
DENQ1 1:49641Punt6–7
NEQ2 14:4620Turnover6–7
DENQ2 14:35316Touchdown6–14
NEQ2 13:461348Field goal9–14
DENQ2 7:0235Punt9–14
NEQ2 5:2135Turnover9–14
DENQ2 4:0831Punt9–14
NEQ2 2:27310Punt9–14
DENQ2 1:46523Field goal9–17
NEQ2 0:3300End of half9–17
DENQ3 15:003-5Punt9–17
NEQ3 13:15747Field goal12–17
DENQ3 10:26734Punt12–17
NEQ3 6:4230Punt12–17
DENQ3 4:403-1Punt12–17
NEQ3 2:35620Punt12–17
DENQ4 15:00948Field goal12–20
NEQ4 10:021148Turnover on downs12–20
DENQ4 5:5638Punt12–20
NEQ4 4:35957Turnover on downs12–20
DENQ4 2:1830Punt12–20
NEQ4 1:52850Touchdown18–20
DENQ4 0:1200End of half18–20

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady27/5631012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tom Brady3134.30
Brandon Bolden5122.40
James White5112.20
Steven Jackson482.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski8151441
Julian Edelman713530
James White516450
Danny Amendola58390
Brandon Bolden23290
Keshawn Martin0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning17/3217620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson16724.50
Ronnie Hillman11161.50
Peyton Manning3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders58620
Owen Daniels23332
C.J. Anderson33180
Jordan Norwood23160
Andre Caldwell11150
Cody Latimer11130
Demaryius Thomas27120
Ronnie Hillman1270
Vernon Davis0100
Virgil Green0100
Bennie Fowler0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.26