2020 · Week 6

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

18·12

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapPatriots
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.004
  • 40.3%Success rate46.5%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback-0.040
  • -0.103EPA / rush+0.052
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -5.11CPOE-2.06
  • 39.5%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.88
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE
2013 · playoffsNE @ DEN16–26DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NE
DENQ1 15:00548Field goal3–0
NEQ1 13:02628Turnover3–0
DENQ1 9:3238Field goal6–0
NEQ1 8:05727Punt6–0
DENQ1 3:071283Field goal9–0
NEQ2 12:131174Field goal9–3
DENQ2 5:201148Field goal12–3
NEQ2 0:1900End of half12–3
NEQ3 15:0030Punt12–3
DENQ3 12:391579Field goal15–3
NEQ3 3:32433Turnover15–3
DENQ3 2:0836Field goal18–3
NEQ3 0:3710Turnover18–3
DENQ3 0:3230Punt18–3
NEQ4 14:0339Punt18–3
DENQ4 11:5439Punt18–3
NEQ4 10:14565Touchdown18–9
DENQ4 8:31522Turnover18–9
NEQ4 5:1535Field goal18–12
DENQ4 3:2310Turnover18–12
NEQ4 3:141248Turnover on downs18–12
DENQ4 0:5900End of half18–12

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock10/2418902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay231014.40
Royce Freeman8263.30
Diontae Spencer199.00
Drew Lock5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Patrick481010
Albert Okwuegbunam26450
Jerry Jeudy25320
Nick Vannett1170
Royce Freeman1140
Diontae Spencer0100
DaeSean Hamilton0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton17/2515702
Julian Edelman2/23800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton10767.61
Damien Harris6193.20
Rex Burkhead5142.80
James White482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James White89650
Damiere Byrd34380
Ryan Izzo33380
Cam Newton11160
Isaiah Zuber11160
Damien Harris11140
Julian Edelman2680
N'Keal Harry0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

4.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+1.70