Closing spread
NE -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.004
- 40.3%Success rate46.5%
- -0.051EPA / dropback-0.040
- -0.103EPA / rush+0.052
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.4%
- -5.11CPOE-2.06
- 39.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.59Points / drive1.88
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 10/24 | 189 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 8 | 101 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 2 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 17/25 | 157 | 0 | 2 |
| Julian Edelman | 2/2 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 10 | 76 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Damien Harris | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 8 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaiah Zuber | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+1.70