2015 · Week 12

Final / OT

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

24·30

Broncos

Denver

QB Brock Osweiler

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 23°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+3.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.089EPA / play-0.070
  • 44.0%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.32CPOE-1.92
  • 41.0%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.47
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE
2013 · playoffsNE @ DEN16–26DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DEN
DENQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:27447Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 11:243-1Punt7–0
NEQ1 9:0432Punt7–0
DENQ1 8:141254Punt7–0
NEQ1 1:51838Punt7–0
DENQ2 13:2536Turnover7–0
NEQ2 12:12310Touchdown14–0
DENQ2 10:4038Punt14–0
NEQ2 9:2138Punt14–0
DENQ2 7:481077Touchdown14–7
NEQ2 2:07618Turnover on downs14–7
NEQ3 15:00616Punt14–7
DENQ3 11:521254Missed field goal14–7
NEQ3 6:5739Punt14–7
DENQ3 5:1034Punt14–7
NEQ3 3:40513Punt14–7
DENQ3 1:3332Punt14–7
NEQ3 0:07365Touchdown21–7
DENQ4 14:5030Punt21–7
DENQ4 14:16436Touchdown21–14
NEQ4 12:3459Punt21–14
DENQ4 10:58852Field goal21–17
NEQ4 6:0845Punt21–17
DENQ4 4:3630Punt21–17
NEQ4 4:12522Punt21–17
DENQ4 2:31680Touchdown21–24
NEQ4 1:09546Field goal24–24
NEOT3-7Punt24–24
DENOT357Touchdown24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/4228030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount9273.00
Brandon Bolden4112.80
James White310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski610881
Brandon Bolden44841
Scott Chandler511581
Brandon LaFell49360
Keshawn Martin1180
James White2550
Asante Cleveland1110
Chris Harper0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler23/4227011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson151137.52
Ronnie Hillman14594.21
Brock Osweiler242.00
Juwan Thompson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders691130
Owen Daniels56480
C.J. Anderson44400
Demaryius Thomas113360
Vernon Davis22100
Andre Caldwell2481
Bennie Fowler1280
Cody Latimer1170
Ronnie Hillman1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.40
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.82