Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play-0.070
- 44.0%Success rate40.5%
- +0.174EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.32CPOE-1.92
- 41.0%Third-down rate35.2%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.25Points / drive1.47
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/42 | 280 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 10 | 88 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 4 | 84 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 11 | 58 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Asante Cleveland | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Harper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 23/42 | 270 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 15 | 113 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 9 | 113 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 13 | 36 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.40
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.82