Closing spread
NE -7
Total
45
Model margin
-0.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play-0.119
- 49.2%Success rate38.4%
- +0.254EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.042EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.49CPOE-2.16
- 40.8%Third-down rate38.9%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 2.52Points / drive1.24
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/34 | 266 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3/3 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| James White | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 18/33 | 221 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 11 | 137 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.98
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.95