2017 · Week 10

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

41·16

Broncos

Denver

QB Brock Osweiler

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

45

Model margin

-0.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.137EPA / play-0.119
  • 49.2%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.254EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.042EPA / rush-0.134
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +3.49CPOE-2.16
  • 40.8%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 60.8%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.24
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE
2013 · playoffsNE @ DEN16–26DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DEN
NEQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:22224Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 12:36233Field goal7–0
DENQ1 11:21217Field goal7–0
DENQ1 10:0438Field goal13–3
NEQ1 8:3900Touchdown14–3
DENQ1 8:24764Field goal14–6
NEQ1 5:181465Field goal17–6
DENQ2 13:3865Punt17–6
NEQ2 10:38420Field goal20–6
DENQ2 8:471163Field goal20–9
NEQ2 2:361070Touchdown27–9
DENQ2 0:2500End of half27–9
DENQ3 15:001485Touchdown27–16
NEQ3 7:54775Touchdown34–16
DENQ3 4:36625Punt34–16
NEQ3 1:351784Touchdown41–16
DENQ4 9:04731Turnover41–16
NEQ4 6:4447Turnover on downs41–16
DENQ4 5:1735Punt41–16
NEQ4 4:32946Turnover on downs41–16
DENQ4 0:2614End of half41–16

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3426630
Brian Hoyer3/33700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis14553.91
Rex Burkhead10363.60
James White273.50
Brandon Bolden210.50
Tom Brady100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski47740
Brandin Cooks611740
Martellus Bennett33380
Danny Amendola44360
Rex Burkhead33271
Phillip Dorsett22160
Dwayne Allen12111
James White33111

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler18/3322111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson10545.40
Jamaal Charles8384.80
Devontae Booker8243.00
Brock Osweiler1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders6111370
Demaryius Thomas58441
Cody Latimer35280
Devontae Booker1150
Jeff Heuerman1340
A.J. Derby1120
C.J. Anderson1110
Jamaal Charles0100
Bennie Fowler0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.98
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.95