Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-3.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.154EPA / play+0.036
- 48.2%Success rate43.7%
- +0.308EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.069
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- +10.94CPOE-1.38
- 43.3%Third-down rate42.4%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 2.47Points / drive2.10
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 10/21 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 25 | 71 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 1 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 17/31 | 133 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Pat Bryant | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pat Bryant | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.44
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.85