2025 · CON

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

10·7

Broncos

Denver

QB Jarrett Stidham

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-3.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.154EPA / play+0.036
  • 48.2%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.308EPA / dropback+0.097
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.069
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +10.94CPOE-1.38
  • 43.3%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 2.47Points / drive2.10
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE
2013 · playoffsNE @ DEN16–26DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DEN
DENQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:3036Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:00559Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 10:19611Punt0–7
DENQ1 6:33722Punt0–7
NEQ1 2:203-5Punt0–7
DENQ1 0:541143Turnover on downs0–7
NEQ2 9:22624Punt0–7
DENQ2 5:506-5Turnover0–7
NEQ2 2:52212Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 2:10514Punt7–7
NEQ2 1:3538Punt7–7
DENQ2 0:48415Missed field goal7–7
NEQ2 0:20316Missed field goal7–7
NEQ3 15:001564Field goal10–7
DENQ3 5:2936Punt10–7
NEQ3 3:50751Missed field goal10–7
DENQ3 0:1133Punt10–7
NEQ4 14:11410Punt10–7
DENQ4 11:29617Punt10–7
NEQ4 8:213-1Punt10–7
DENQ4 6:5535Missed field goal10–7
NEQ4 4:4231Punt10–7
DENQ4 3:0521Turnover10–7
NEQ4 2:11312End of half10–7

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye10/218600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson25712.80
Drake Maye10656.51
TreVeyon Henderson351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins22510
Stefon Diggs56170
Hunter Henry23120
Kayshon Boutte1660
Rhamondre Stevenson0200
DeMario Douglas0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jarrett Stidham17/3113311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
RJ Harvey13372.80
Jarrett Stidham4235.80
Jaleel McLaughlin4112.80
Tyler Badie144.00
Pat Bryant111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Mims Jr.46620
RJ Harvey46220
Evan Engram23190
Courtland Sutton35171
Lil'Jordan Humphrey1350
Elijah Moore1140
Jaleel McLaughlin1220
Pat Bryant1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.44
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-3.85