2023 · Week 16

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Bailey Zappe

26·23

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 28°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -7

Total

37.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.189EPA / play-0.046
  • 38.9%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.226EPA / dropback-0.005
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.110
  • 5.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -3.39CPOE+3.74
  • 30.8%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.87
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE
2013 · playoffsNE @ DEN16–26DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DEN
NEQ1 15:001-16Turnover0–0
DENQ1 14:5345Turnover on downs0–0
NEQ1 13:1833Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:4734Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:1539Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:01525Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 5:151261Field goal3–7
DENQ2 13:30436Turnover3–7
NEQ2 11:2738Punt3–7
DENQ2 9:21927Punt3–7
NEQ2 3:19744Missed field goal3–7
DENQ2 0:33324Missed field goal3–7
DENQ3 15:0030Punt3–7
NEQ3 12:44570Touchdown9–7
DENQ3 9:4845Punt9–7
NEQ3 7:4034Punt9–7
DENQ3 6:043-12Punt9–7
NEQ3 4:28652Touchdown22–7
DENQ3 1:3400Touchdown23–7
DENQ3 1:283-6Punt23–7
NEQ4 14:5134Punt23–7
DENQ4 13:11983Touchdown23–15
NEQ4 8:3338Punt23–15
DENQ4 6:331288Touchdown23–23
NEQ4 2:533-1Punt23–23
DENQ4 1:423-3Punt23–23
NEQ4 0:58543Field goal26–23
DENQ4 0:0210End of half26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bailey Zappe25/3325620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott12272.30
Kevin Harris7213.00
Tyquan Thornton199.00
Bailey Zappe122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMario Douglas58740
DeVante Parker45650
Ezekiel Elliott911331
Jalen Reagor22330
Pharaoh Brown22250
Mike Gesicki22151
Tyquan Thornton11110

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson25/3723820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaleel McLaughlin6376.20
Javonte Williams11242.21
Russell Wilson4205.00
Samaje Perine122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Mims Jr.34630
Brandon Johnson35471
Jerry Jeudy35440
Jaleel McLaughlin45300
Lucas Krull45281
Samaje Perine45270
Courtland Sutton0100
Adam Trautman0100
Javonte Williams33-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.25
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.26