Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.189EPA / play-0.046
- 38.9%Success rate42.3%
- -0.226EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.110
- 5.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.39CPOE+3.74
- 30.8%Third-down rate36.8%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.00Points / drive1.87
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 25/33 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Harris | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Bailey Zappe | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 5 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 11 | 33 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 25/37 | 238 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 3 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 4 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.25
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.26