2016 · Week 15

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

16·3

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 18°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.128EPA / play-0.059
  • 44.3%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.276EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.153
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.98CPOE-0.31
  • 47.3%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 2.47Points / drive1.51
  • 0.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE
2013 · playoffsNE @ DEN16–26DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DEN
NEQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:1634Field goal3–0
DENQ1 12:27420Punt3–0
NEQ1 11:1832Punt3–0
DENQ1 9:53747Field goal3–3
NEQ1 6:58626Punt3–3
DENQ1 4:451179Turnover3–3
NEQ2 14:50856Touchdown10–3
DENQ2 11:011134Punt10–3
NEQ2 5:141141Punt10–3
DENQ2 0:3217End of half10–3
DENQ3 15:0032Punt10–3
NEQ3 13:293-6Punt10–3
DENQ3 12:16414Punt10–3
NEQ3 10:401061Field goal13–3
DENQ3 5:2833Punt13–3
NEQ3 4:25845Punt13–3
DENQ4 15:0035Punt13–3
NEQ4 13:3934Punt13–3
DENQ4 12:333-5Punt13–3
NEQ4 10:56550Field goal16–3
DENQ4 8:16645Turnover on downs16–3
NEQ4 5:581124Turnover on downs16–3
DENQ4 1:54658Turnover16–3
NEQ4 0:1400End of half16–3

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady16/3218800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis18955.30
LeGarrette Blount17311.81
James White3113.70
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman612750
Martellus Bennett24350
James White38240
Chris Hogan12180
Malcolm Mitchell11140
Dion Lewis2390

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian25/4028201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett10373.70
Devontae Booker6172.80
Trevor Siemian144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas711910
Emmanuel Sanders36480
Jeff Heuerman24400
A.J. Derby46350
Justin Forsett45160
Devontae Booker23160
Jordan Taylor11150
Jordan Norwood11120
Virgil Green1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.5%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.69