Closing spread
NE -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.128EPA / play-0.059
- 44.3%Success rate41.0%
- +0.276EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.153
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.98CPOE-0.31
- 47.3%Third-down rate34.4%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 2.47Points / drive1.51
- 0.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/32 | 188 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 18 | 95 | 5.3 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 17 | 31 | 1.8 | 1 |
| James White | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 12 | 75 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 25/40 | 282 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.51
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.69