2014 · Week 9

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

21·43

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

52.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapPatriots
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.090
  • 46.3%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.188EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.046
  • 10.7%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +3.06CPOE+1.32
  • 44.4%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 2.29Points / drive2.38
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2013 · playoffsNE @ DEN16–26DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NE
DENQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:16619Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:193-1Punt0–0
NEQ1 8:5938Field goal0–3
DENQ1 7:091068Touchdown7–3
NEQ1 3:541167Field goal7–6
DENQ2 14:19214Turnover7–6
NEQ2 13:34529Touchdown7–13
DENQ2 11:41826Opp touchdown7–20
DENQ2 8:11852Missed field goal7–20
NEQ2 5:2539Punt7–20
DENQ2 4:46824Turnover on downs7–20
NEQ2 2:051063Touchdown7–27
DENQ2 0:0800End of half7–27
NEQ3 15:00618Turnover7–27
DENQ3 13:30657Touchdown14–27
NEQ3 11:061153Field goal14–30
DENQ3 7:4610Turnover14–36
NEQ3 7:31110Touchdown14–37
DENQ3 7:27653Touchdown21–37
NEQ3 5:501581Touchdown21–43
DENQ4 13:57772Turnover on downs21–43
NEQ4 11:2034Punt21–43
DENQ4 10:23533Turnover on downs21–43
NEQ4 8:4339Punt21–43
DENQ4 6:131049Turnover on downs21–43
NEQ4 3:04628Punt21–43
DENQ4 1:42318End of half21–43

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning34/5743822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson3186.00
Ronnie Hillman10161.61
Juwan Thompson263.00
Peyton Manning231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders10161510
Demaryius Thomas7111270
Ronnie Hillman710471
Julius Thomas22331
C.J. Anderson34330
Wes Welker38310
Jacob Tamme15100
Juwan Thompson1160

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady33/5333341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonas Gray12332.80
Shane Vereen11292.60
Tom Brady242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski9101051
Julian Edelman910891
Brandon LaFell613531
Shane Vereen510381
Danny Amendola23350
Jonas Gray0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.34