Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
52.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.090
- 46.3%Success rate46.4%
- +0.188EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.6%
- +3.06CPOE+1.32
- 44.4%Third-down rate45.6%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 2.29Points / drive2.38
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 34/57 | 438 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Juwan Thompson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 10 | 16 | 151 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 11 | 127 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 7 | 10 | 47 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 3 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 33/53 | 333 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Gray | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 9 | 10 | 105 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 10 | 89 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 6 | 13 | 53 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 10 | 38 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.34