Closing spread
CAR -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.026
- 38.8%Success rate42.4%
- +0.024EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.222EPA / rush-0.151
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- 35.5%Third-down rate38.5%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.19Points / drive1.98
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.055EPA / play allowed+0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. CAR are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 16/27 | 210 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Hill | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Ron Rivers | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 5 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 2 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Greg Hill | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 26/47 | 299 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Lane | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Walls | 7 | 13 | 83 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 12 | 62 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Brian Kinchen | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.87