1999 · Week 7

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

24·9

Panthers

Carolina

QB Steve Beuerlein

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CAR -4.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.057EPA / play+0.026
  • 38.8%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.024EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.222EPA / rush-0.151
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 35.5%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.98
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.055EPA / play allowed+0.053

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. CAR are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DET @ CAR26–32CAR
2023 · W5CAR @ DET24–42DET
2022 · W16DET @ CAR23–37CAR
2020 · W11DET @ CAR0–20CAR
2018 · W11CAR @ DET19–20DET
2017 · W5CAR @ DET27–24CAR
2014 · W2DET @ CAR7–24CAR
2011 · W11CAR @ DET35–49DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CAR
CARQ1 15:001282Field goal0–3
DETQ1 6:493-2Punt0–3
CARQ1 5:27422Punt0–3
DETQ1 3:46412Turnover0–3
CARQ1 2:20310Turnover0–3
DETQ1 0:541557Touchdown7–3
CARQ2 9:3338Punt7–3
DETQ2 7:17646Field goal10–3
CARQ2 4:471453Field goal10–6
DETQ2 0:2000End of half10–6
DETQ3 15:0000Field goal10–6
CARQ3 14:51623Field goal10–9
DETQ3 11:19875Touchdown17–9
CARQ3 7:083-4Punt17–9
DETQ3 5:44566Touchdown24–9
CARQ3 3:131561Turnover24–9
DETQ4 11:16835Punt24–9
CARQ4 6:143-5Punt24–9
DETQ4 5:39613Punt24–9
CARQ4 3:171370Turnover on downs24–9
DETQ4 0:2600End of half24–9

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch16/2721021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Greg Hill16704.40
Charlie Batch5132.60
Sedrick Irvin591.81
Ron Rivers1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton55660
Germane Crowell36450
David Sloan27391
Sedrick Irvin22280
Brian Stablein2371
Greg Hill1350

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Beuerlein26/4729901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Lane6203.30
Eric Metcalf11717.00
Steve Beuerlein2168.00
Tim Biakabutuka9101.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wesley Walls713830
Muhsin Muhammad412620
Patrick Jeffers57600
Anthony Johnson44410
Tim Biakabutuka22350
Brian Kinchen1180
Donald Hayes1370
Fred Lane2330
Eric Metcalf0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.87