Closing spread
DET -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.160EPA / play+0.058
- 38.2%Success rate45.9%
- -0.163EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.014
- 6.3%Explosive rate11.2%
- -1.80CPOE+1.34
- 34.8%Third-down rate42.4%
- 42.3%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.00Points / drive2.29
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 25/41 | 247 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 11 | 13 | 107 | 1 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 3 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/28 | 236 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 19 | 109 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Craig Reynolds | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 5 | 76 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 4 | 47 | 2 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.36