2023 · Week 5

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

24·42

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -9.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapLions
  • -0.160EPA / play+0.058
  • 38.2%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.163EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.014
  • 6.3%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -1.80CPOE+1.34
  • 34.8%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 42.3%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.00Points / drive2.29
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. DET are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DET @ CAR26–32CAR
2022 · W16DET @ CAR23–37CAR
2020 · W11DET @ CAR0–20CAR
2018 · W11CAR @ DET19–20DET
2017 · W5CAR @ DET27–24CAR
2014 · W2DET @ CAR7–24CAR
2011 · W11CAR @ DET35–49DET
2008 · W11DET @ CAR22–31CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DET
CARQ1 15:00836Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:58381Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 9:41514Turnover0–7
DETQ1 7:28520Touchdown0–14
CARQ1 4:531675Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 12:48844Turnover on downs7–14
CARQ2 10:0711Turnover7–14
DETQ2 9:581038Touchdown7–21
CARQ2 3:5010Turnover7–27
DETQ2 3:29131Touchdown7–28
CARQ2 3:21948Field goal10–28
DETQ2 0:0600End of half10–28
DETQ3 15:001132Punt10–28
CARQ3 8:27627Punt10–28
DETQ3 6:1534Punt10–28
CARQ3 5:2136Punt10–28
DETQ3 4:31851Touchdown10–35
CARQ4 14:58860Touchdown17–35
DETQ4 11:52775Touchdown17–42
CARQ4 7:271475Touchdown24–42
DETQ4 1:5514End of half24–42

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young25/4124732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard9353.90
Miles Sanders7324.60
Laviska Shenault Jr.5275.40
Bryce Young144.00
Andy Dalton111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen11131071
Jonathan Mingo57480
DJ Chark36421
Ian Thomas12280
Hayden Hurst33210
Tommy Tremble1111
Miles Sanders0100
Chuba Hubbard1200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff20/2823630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery191095.71
Craig Reynolds7527.41
Jared Goff200.01
Teddy Bridgewater2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds45761
Sam LaPorta34472
Kalif Raymond33450
Marvin Jones22220
David Montgomery26200
Brock Wright33160
Bam Knight1180
Jameson Williams2320

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.3%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.36